What the polls are showing


Last night was yet another poll that showed that Kiwi voters don;t give a toss about the shrill cacophony of whining from the left wing about Dirty Politics.

In fact it is showing that the voters not only don’t care but are locking in support strongly behind John Key and National.

Dirty politics has always been and continues to be a beltway issue.

The only thing it has done is increase my traffic and my reach.

The polls also show something else which should send a shiver down the spine of those who think the chinless scarf wearer currently running Labour would be Prime Minister.

The polls are showing that contrary to popular wisdom the National party actually does have support partner options.

With Winston Peters and Colin Craig’s cult both polling either above or close to the threshold, then with wasted vote it is likely that both will make it.

That gives John Key options…significant options. ?

He can sign up the Maori party who, under the new leadership of Te Ururoa Flavell, will be able to deliver up more policy gains. Act and United Future will play ball giving National enough to govern.

That means Winston Peters will be able to play on the cross benches, though he may re-think that if he can get enough for John key to contemplate a more enduring partnership. Certainly the policy wins from coalition would be significantly more than sitting on the cross benches.

John Key could also enjoy cross bench support from Colin Craig’s cult. He could use them as a foil to play against Winston Peters’ excesses and same in reverse to use Winston against Colin Craig’s excesses.

For the left however the messages are bleak.

Key staff inside Labour have told me that they have basically given up and are now just keeping up appearances.

Back bench MPs I’ve been talking to are worried about saving their seats and are concentrating on that rather than the party vote.

Panic has now set in with one or two internals in Labour starting with a one.

Labour is now in the exact same position as National was in 2002. A disastrous result like 2002 will mean that a fourth term for National is almost guaranteed, giving more than enough time under MMP to rehabilitate one or more coalition partners.

If John Key and his successor play their cards right then under MMP, with refreshing and revitalising of support parties, that they couldn’t be the key party of government for at least 20 years.

The only way Labour could then contemplate being part of a government is to start thinking about a grand coalition with National for the express purpose of shiving the Greens. If they don’t then the Greens will simply grow in power and supersede Labour in any case.



The latest poll results give National option and Labour nothing to work from.

Expect to see their support ebb away further as people realise that they can’t win. Voters simply won;t back losers.