Did Stuart Nash win Napier because of the Conservatives?

Did Stuart Nash win Napier because of the Conservatives?

The short answer is no.

The long answer is that with a majority of 3733 Nash would have almost certainly won whether Garth McVicar was in the race or not.


For Wayne Walford to beat Nash he would have had to win a vast proportion of McVicar’s vote.

McVicar got 7135 votes, meaning that Walford would have had to have won 3733 just to get to parity with Nash.

Take Nash’s majority away from McVicar’s vote and you are left with 3401.

So for Walford to win he would have needed to win 3733 to start with, then half plus one of the remaining or another 1701 votes.

For Nash to stay ahead he would have only needed to win 1701 of the votes McVicar won.

Nash almost certainly would have won this small number of votes and won the seat even if McVicar wasn’t there.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.