Did Stuart Nash win Napier because of the Conservatives?

Did Stuart Nash win Napier because of the Conservatives?

The short answer is no.

The long answer is that with a majority of 3733 Nash would have almost certainly won whether Garth McVicar was in the race or not.


For Wayne Walford to beat Nash he would have had to win a vast proportion of McVicar’s vote.

McVicar got 7135 votes, meaning that Walford would have had to have won 3733 just to get to parity with Nash.

Take Nash’s majority away from McVicar’s vote and you are left with 3401.

So for Walford to win he would have needed to win 3733 to start with, then half plus one of the remaining or another 1701 votes.

For Nash to stay ahead he would have only needed to win 1701 of the votes McVicar won.

Nash almost certainly would have won this small number of votes and won the seat even if McVicar wasn’t there.


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