TV3 Live stream.

K: Only National can provide a stable government.

C: Poll gap close enough to close. ?Labour will fix economy, inequality, unemployment. ?National will just give “more of the same”

K: Economy is just fine after a tough 6 years.

C: 32,000 more unemployed, 13 out of 15 regions has lower wages

K: 83,000 jobs have been created. ?1600 people per week off welfare. ?Diversified economy. ? Bad for the economy will be higher minimum wage, 5 extra taxes

(Cunliffe tends to interrupt more)

C: People want money in pocket, not spent on economy

K: Raising minimum wage doesn’t solve anything

C: No relationship between unemployment and minimum wage rise.

(Tells K “stop interrupting, that’s enough”)

K: Minimum wages are paid by very small businesses on the whole

C: All the money goes to food or medicine, and the money goes back into the community. ? Key is scaremongering

K: NZ will get increases in pay as long as the economy can stand it. ? C is lying if he says there are no (negative) consequences to raising minimum wage. ?High minimum wages and no probationary period will lock young people out.

J: You are arguing stability vs fairness

C: Labour will have a 3 part plan to improve the economy to ‘grow the pie’. ?This is the engine that pays for minimum wage rises


Summary for first segment: ?No clear “winner” , no “show me the money moment”. ?Cunliffe a little more aggressively interrupting. ?John Campbell not obviously favouring either side. ?For now: ?Draw.


K: Economic plan: Build surpluses, reduce ACC levies[?], reduce government debt.

Key?and Campbell debating each other now on taxes. ? ?Cunliffe still to get a turn.

K: High chance of tax cuts being deliverable while Labour won’t

(Key is rushing – trying to get lots in, but not doing too well)

C: Labour will deliver tax cuts in the 2nd term as they’ll pay down debt first.

(Cunliffe tells Campbell off for not giving enough time)

C: Family home now subject to CGT, and also not on parents’ home

K: CGT is 30 pages long and complicated. ?OECD CGT recommendation is for it go on all homes.

(Campbell is clearly giving more time to Key at this stage)

C: An absence CGT is a tax haven for speculators. ?CGT is more detailed than National’s tax cuts

(Cunliffe tries to get a “show me the money” moment in about National’s tax cuts but does it by yapping over the top of both Key and Campbell)


Summary for second segment: ?David Cunliffe keeps talking over the top. ?John Campbell loses control of the debate. ?Discussion quite dry, Key got more time. ?For now: ?Still a draw.


C: Labour will work towards improving home ownership stats. ? Kiwibuild will do 8,000 new homes per year for the first 4 years.

K: home ownership rates have been on a long term decline. ?mostly due to land availability problems. ?also take off excessive fees. ?create first home entry packages to make it easier to get on the ladder.

C: Not a single house built in special housing areas yet by National. ?Key’s numbers are wrong.

K: from 50,000 homes under old scheme to 90,000 homes to the new scheme.

C: Nobody knows about overseas ownership data of property. ?Foreign speculators are interfering

(Cunlliffe keeps talking over the top to try to shut Key down)



Summary for third segment: ?Cunliffe keeps interrupting every time Key gets to a point he doesn’t like. ?Key is getting the messages out. ? Still no “show me the money” moment. ?Still a draw.


K: Minimum wages do need to go up. ?But only in line with economic performance.

C: Jobs will not be at risk by raising the minimum wage (at reasonable levels). 100,000 children grow up in working families that don’t earn enough to feed their children. ?Ditto, on unemployed. ?Cunliffe’s number 1 priority is to feed children. ?Child poverty Cunliffe’s major initiative

K: ?National’s already doing this. ?Breakfast in schools. ?DOL doesn’t agree with David Cunliffe’s numbers. ?11% of children considered in “poverty” come from working homes, the rest from benefit families.

(closing statement) C: Raise the ?minimum wage, get rid of secondary tax, raise the abatement level, WINZ to go back to personal case management and support


Summary of fourth segment: Cunliffe gets a strong push, but Key keeps explaining the numbers don’t stack up. ?Cunliffe does a pulpit type speech at the end. ? Still no “show me the money” moment.

Labour voters will feel Cunliffe is doing well. ?National voters will think Key is doing well. ?In all fairness, it’s relatively even. ?Cunliffe is pushing the numbers, Key is trying to correct them, but if you don’t know any better, you wouldn’t know who is lying and who isn’t. ? Still even.

Of course, Cunliffe needs better than ‘still even.

Last segment:

Closing statements

John Key looks straight down the camera, but David Cunliffe talks to John Campbell.


I know our own audience will not agree with this, but no clear winner. ?And nothing new.