Two new polls, Winston still has balance of power and Labour can’t win

Two new polls are out, OneNews/Colmar Brunton and NZ Heald Digipoll.

Both show that Winston Peters holds the balance of power, National has partnership options and no matter how you add it up Labour, Greens, Internet Mana, plus everyone else that sides with them simply don’t have the numbers to form a government.

The first thing you have to learn in politics is how to count.

One News/Colmar Brunton poll:

140911_One_News_Colmar_Brunton_poll_6-10_Sept_2014_prelim

 

NZ Herald/Digipoll:

New Zealand First is on the rise and seems assured of returning to Parliament in bigger numbers, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

And Labour appears to have arrested its steady decline.

National has dropped below 50 per cent for the first time in DigiPoll surveys this year and would need partners to govern. With eight days to go to the election, it could turn out to be a tighter race than the past few weeks have suggested.

“It just shows you how tight the race is going to be, ” Prime Minister John Key said last night.

New Zealand First would not hold the balance of power under this poll scenario because National could form a bare majority with just one of its support partners (Act, United Future or the Maori Party) or a comfortable one with all three of them, assuming they are returned.

Labour is up slightly to 24.6 per cent. It is the first time in the past six DigiPoll surveys that it has not declined. However, Labour would not be able to form a Government even if it combined with the Greens, New Zealand First, Internet-Mana and the Maori Party.

Their combined vote would be 59 when a majority in a 122-seat Parliament would be 62.

The Conservatives are unchanged on 3.8 per cent and would not make it into Parliament.

Internet-Mana is down by 1.2 points to 2.3 per cent, possibly a reflection of talk of tensions in the alliance, although this result would see Laila Harre and Annette Sykes elected as long as leader Hone Harawira keeps his seat.

There is no way that Winston Peters will entertain a Labour, Greens, New Zealand First, Internet-Mana and the Maori Party coalition or even support arrangement.

There is no path to victory for Labour now. Watch their numbers slump in the final week. This is 2002 deja vu.

digipoll23

It still appears that NZ First are picking up previously undeclared voters, and that Labour and National are around the same numbers.

Labour somehow needs to find at least 5 % to be in with a chance to win, that is unlikely to occur in the last week.

 

– NZ Herald, One News

 


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

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