Two polls herald Labour’s disaster

Two polls this morning show that Labour’s hope that “Dirty Politics” was going to be their salvation was misplaced.

The NZ Herald/Digipoll is really bad news for them.

National’s polling has barely flickered in the three weeks since the Dirty Politics book was launched and the party could still govern alone on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

Prime Minister John Key told the Herald the results reflected “a huge fatigue factor” with Dirty Politics.

Their July poll was clearly out of whack and the poll has settled back to usual levels.

National support

The full numbers for the Herald/Digipoll are:

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 30
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

Fairfax also has a poll out today and the reading isn’t much better.

Two weeks out from the election National’s popularity has soared after the dumping of justice minister Judith Collins, putting John Key on course for a thumping victory on the evidence of a new poll.

The survey, taken over the five days starting with Collins’ resignation on Saturday, saw National surge to 54.2 per cent, up 3.4, while Labour fell.

If that level of support was mirrored on election day it would give National a 15-seat majority over all the other parties combined, even before taking into account support parties like ACT and UnitedFuture.

Full results here

The furore over Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics, and the drip feed of hacked emails between key players on the Right, seems to have damaged Labour despite Key’s hand being forced over Collins.

Its support slipped 1.8 to 24.3 per cent and it will be concerned mixed messages from leader David Cunliffe over the last few days, when he has struggled to explain the detail of his planned capital gains tax, will have harmed it further.

Likely coalition partner the Green Party rose 1.1 percentage points to 12.9, but along with National was the only party to gain ground since the last Stuff-Ipsos poll in August.

The poll seems to confirm Key’s confidence that the dirty politics saga has not harmed National.


Personally, I think that the Fairfax poll shows the trend but not the actual numbers. National is certainly too high, though it might actually get there given the reception i get everywhere I go. It certainly isn’t negative, and overwhelmingly positive.

Both polls though show the trend…National’s support is rock solid, and dirty politics is affecting those who are really playing the dirty politics by being involved with stolen and hacked emails.

Martyn Bradbury and Nicky Hager will be crying tears of impotent rage as they start to realise that their criminal dreams and fantasies have come to nought.




– NZ Herald and Fairfax


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