Last poll of year is a bit boring but Audrey Young manages some weapons grade spin on behalf of Labour

The Herald’s last poll of the year is real margin of error stuff.

Labour is up a bit, so is National, NZ First and Greens down a bit…otherwise it is a bit meh.

It didn’t stop Audrey Young spinning this as a massive lift in labour’s fortunes despite them still being under 30%.

Labour’s popularity has jumped three percentage points in the first political poll since Andrew Little took over the leadership and the first major poll since the September 20 election.

But National’s support has also risen, while support for the Greens and New Zealand First has declined.

Labour is on 28.9 per cent, a rise of three points from 25.9 per cent in the Herald-DigiPoll survey conducted in the last week of the election campaign.

Its party vote in the election of 25.13 per cent was close to the poll result, so it can safely be said the party has had a lift.

Mr Little was elected on November 18 after the resignation of David Cunliffe.

National’s support rose 2.2 points, from 48.2 to 50.4 per cent in the poll, conducted in the second and third weeks of December.

Audrey Young then proceeds to list all the bad things that happened to John Key since the election…almost as if she is re-telling them so maybe, just possibly…hopefully even, that the mud will stick where it hasn’t yet.

Since the election, Prime Minister John Key has had mixed fortunes. He has attended Apec and the G20, and clinched a free-trade deal with South Korea.

But he has proposed sending training troops to the Middle East – an idea opposed by Labour – seen dairy prices plunge and forecasts of a surplus disappear, and been on the back foot after a damning report from the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, Cheryl Gwyn, who found the neutrality of the Security Intelligence Service had been compromised in its dealing with an Official Information Act request lodged by blogger Cameron Slater.

Meh…national is up 2.2 % Audrey…and to cap it all off so is John Key’s popularity.

Mr Key is preferred by 65 per cent, a slight rise of 0.7.

But almost 50 per cent reacted positively when asked how they rated Mr Little’s performance – 24.7 per cent said “good”, 19.4 per cent “very good” and 5.3 per cent “excellent”. Another 23 per cent said it was “adequate” and 7 per cent “poor”.

Questioned on party affiliation, 24.2 per cent of those polled said they voted Labour last time and were likely to again.

But more encouraging for Labour is that 14.3 per cent said they had not voted Labour last time but were likely to do so next time.

Mr Little’s early polling figures are less pronounced than were his predecessor’s. Mr Cunliffe began with 16.8 per cent personal support soon after his election as leader in September last year, and Labour peaked at 37.7 per cent before a gradual decline to 25.13 on election day a year later.

But Mr Cunliffe was once a minister and had a higher profile and the leadership contest, prompted by David Shearer’s resignation, was a high-profile event.

All three previous Labour leaders, Mr Cunliffe, Mr Shearer and Phil Goff, got the party to a peak of just above 35 per cent in the polls and peaked in personal support at 18 per cent or 19 per cent.

Oh my, those results didn’t suit the narrative did they?

So despite the list of dirty politics accusations John Key and National remain as popular as ever, Andrew Little has apparently lifted Labour to under 30%…but his personal results are worse than David Cunliffe, David Shearer and Phil Goff.

No wonder the Herald buried this poll in the Boxing Day edition, they spent a metric shit tonne of cash on it and it didn’t match their editorial stance. Note they still had to use my name in order to get better Google hits.

Boo hoo, Merry Christmas Shayne and Tim.

 

– NZ Herald

 

 


THANK YOU for being a subscriber. Because of you Whaleoil is going from strength to strength. It is a little known fact that Whaleoil subscribers are better in bed, good looking and highly intelligent. Sometimes all at once! Please Click Here Now to subscribe to an ad-free Whaleoil.

  • OT Richter

    She fails to mention, that despite the predicted (let’s face it, anyone was going to be better than Cunliffe) rise in Labour’s polling, on these poll results the current minority govt could now rule as a majority govt. Hardly a success for the Left.

  • Jimmie

    As you say Cam its margin of error stuff. Still shows the Nats bouncing between high 40-low 50% range. Also shows Labour and Greens in sub 30% and 10% range.

    This despite 2 months of post election hype promoting the left and regurgitating Hagar’s discredited dirty politics tripe.

    They just don’t get it do they? The more the msm tie their horses to the waning fortunes of the left the bigger the pool of alienated voters who are looking for an outlet that presents the news/current affairs in a manner that is not tinged with red. (Aka FREED)

    The msm obviously fear the result of FREED collapsing their online support however their reactionary rants/bias just make the FREED brand much more attractive to the Centre Right vote.

  • mommadog

    Even ZB news is putting a positive spin on it – no where near as far as Audrey but saying the results are a great Christmas present for labour. They admit National has also gone up, but last after labours “good news” almost as an afterthought.

    • Aucky

      ZB just reads the online Heralds headlines these days and call it ZB News. The new management won’t be happy until they can finally rid themselves of that pesky righty Leighton Smith along with Larry Williams & Mike Hosking. That’s a bit of a challenge though as they happen to be the networks biggest advertising revenue earners by a country mile.

  • Beetle

    This article should be used for a Y7 media studies example for bias, poor writing and a shallow over representation of a scientifically worthless poll. The overuse of the word ‘but’ to promote labour and demote national is childlike. If this is what NZs senior political writers pass off as OK, it’s time to look overseas for honest, high-quality analysis.

  • 1951

    Conducted in the 2nd & 3rd weeks when there was little ‘positive’ reporting by msm. The public aren’t so easily fooled.

  • kiwibattler

    “Questioned on party affiliation, 24.2 per cent of those polled said they voted Labour last time and were likely to again” – that 24% is Labour’s hard-core ‘vote for Labour no matter what’ brigade, so for Cunliffe to only gain 1% or so above that during the election shows how far Labour have fallen. Andrew Little should have got a substantial lift in the % as all new leaders do when they first come into the job – the fact he hasn’t doesn’t bode well for him.

  • Wheninrome

    Dotcom’s lot had to go somewhere, being unintelligent they would go to the left.
    As has been proven time and time again, vote for minority parties pick up at election times, those votes go somewhere short term and then revert to their normal party of choice, it is about making a “protest”.

  • So Little does a “cut the crap” in parliament and the electorate falls about itself in admiration and rush to Labour as a result. — MSM version

  • I also like the … Mana got 0.4%, but Internet Mana for 1.4% which would have given them two MPs but they got none, and yet Peter Dunne got 0% and he got back in!

    Yeah… it’s a not a newspaper, it’s a wishIcouldchangerealitypaper.

  • cows4me

    Whoever made Audrey’s trifle must have been very heavy with the brandy bottle.

  • flutterby

    Who’s Audrey Young? ;-) We all know who Whaleoil is :-)

  • LesleyNZ

    Katie Bradford also used Cam’s name last night. I think perhaps Jonathan Young needs to have a nice chat with his sister Audrey and tell her she doesn’t have to be so biased for the sake of it.

  • Rex

    I read the article and thought “nothing has changed in the MSM”. What an utterly pathetic article by the Herald!

  • I thought to myself when reading the original article, “Why isn’t the headline, ‘National over 50% support and Key more popular than ever'”. Was waiting to see what Cam would write as the bias in the article is so unprofessionally undisguised.

  • Michael_l_c

    What would you tell the phone surveyor if they phoned and asked you what u thought of small?
    The truth so the media could put their spin on it?
    Or that he is labours messiah, just to have some fun and lull them into a false sense of security?
    So what is the value of political polls.

  • Apolonia

    The full results include the Conservatives and ACT
    Conservatives 2.9%
    Act 0.4%

29%