Statistics and the law of probability

A Mathematician might talk about the law of probability, a gambler might talk about the odds.

If an individual coin toss or the roll of dice is considered to be a random event, then if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted.



If I am an employer and I need? long term employees I will consider the following.Women in their twenties and thirties are more likely to take maternity leave than Men. Not always, but they are statistically more likely. They are also more likely to resign in order to be at home with their children for a period of time than men. With that in mind to protect my business I would ensure that I did not hire mainly women in that age group as it would put my business at risk if a number of them took maternity leave or resigned in the same year. That may not seem fair but given the probabilities I would need to consider the risk. If the employees were easily replaced then I would not need to consider the risk but if they were highly trained individuals and hard to find then I certainly would be careful to get the balance right.

With Islamic immigration to New Zealand we need to consider the risks. Even if only 10% of them are going to become a threat to our way of life that is still one in ten. One in ten sounds a lot more scary than 10% doesn’t it?

If you knew that statistically 1 in 10 people attending a Christmas party were likely to cut your head off would you still attend the party?

What about if it was only 1 in 20 people?

What if it was only 1 in 40?

When you make the statistics a little closer to home the danger becomes more apparent. Do you think that being told that the gunman holding them hostage only represents 1 in 100 Muslims that are a danger will reduce the Australians’ terror one little bit?

It is not the majority who are the danger, we realise that. It is the minority, but is an ever growing minority and Muslim immigration to New Zealand and to Australia and other western countries needs to stop.

We are gambling with our lives and our rights and our culture.

One more example for you. If you were told that the High School your child attends that has 3000 students, had 1 radical Muslim teenager attending, would you feel safe?

I thought not.

Every time we let the ideology of Islam into our country we are changing the odds.

It is not a gamble I am willing to take.