Statistics and the law of probability

A Mathematician might talk about the law of probability, a gambler might talk about the odds.

If an individual coin toss or the roll of dice is considered to be a random event, then if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted.



If I am an employer and I need  long term employees I will consider the following.Women in their twenties and thirties are more likely to take maternity leave than Men. Not always, but they are statistically more likely. They are also more likely to resign in order to be at home with their children for a period of time than men. With that in mind to protect my business I would ensure that I did not hire mainly women in that age group as it would put my business at risk if a number of them took maternity leave or resigned in the same year. That may not seem fair but given the probabilities I would need to consider the risk. If the employees were easily replaced then I would not need to consider the risk but if they were highly trained individuals and hard to find then I certainly would be careful to get the balance right.

With Islamic immigration to New Zealand we need to consider the risks. Even if only 10% of them are going to become a threat to our way of life that is still one in ten. One in ten sounds a lot more scary than 10% doesn’t it?

If you knew that statistically 1 in 10 people attending a Christmas party were likely to cut your head off would you still attend the party?

What about if it was only 1 in 20 people?

What if it was only 1 in 40?

When you make the statistics a little closer to home the danger becomes more apparent. Do you think that being told that the gunman holding them hostage only represents 1 in 100 Muslims that are a danger will reduce the Australians’ terror one little bit?

It is not the majority who are the danger, we realise that. It is the minority, but is an ever growing minority and Muslim immigration to New Zealand and to Australia and other western countries needs to stop.

We are gambling with our lives and our rights and our culture.

One more example for you. If you were told that the High School your child attends that has 3000 students, had 1 radical Muslim teenager attending, would you feel safe?

I thought not.

Every time we let the ideology of Islam into our country we are changing the odds.

It is not a gamble I am willing to take.




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  • thesilentmajority

    I wholeheartedly agree with you. My thoughts exactly. It’s a numbers game, pure and simple.

  • Korau

    There were 46,194followers of Islam in New Zealand at the time of the 2013 census (source: Wikipedia). If only 0.1% are radicals (1 in 1,000) that;s still 46.

    I fully support keeping an eye on fruit cakes of any religion, pseudo religion or cult. That includes the Greens!

    • Wheninrome

      It only takes one rotten banana to spoil a bunch. (or similar words)

    • MaryLou

      Which kinda matches the numbers John Key is talking

  • Disinfectant

    I have always thought that those with an obsessive adherence to religion are mentally ill.
    Then there are those who become radicalised to such an extent that they lose all touch with reality.
    Given that Muslim countries have a lot of people in these categories, can, or should we accept that some peoples from some parts of the World have a higher percentage of mental illness.
    Should this be the determining factor in allowing immigration/refugees from these countries.
    Is the fact these countries are at war amongst themselves another indicator of poor mental health amongst the general population, and is it hereditary.

    • BlitzkriegNZ

      It’s called marrying your first cousins… Cam posted the stats on it a few weeks ago. It’d be hilarious if the outcome of stupidity wasn’t so dangerous.

  • Toothbrush76

    Maybe the Left’s outcry on security infringing their privacy and rights will take another twist with them calling for more protection from “John Key” and “the Government”. Nothing sharpens the mind more than an incident close to home.

  • Bazar

    I disagree.
    This post is working with the assumption that each muslim is a binary outcome. Harmless or harmful.

    I believe they are all harmful. Simply because while individually they can be quite nice and social people, collectively they all support an ideology that is culturally backwards, fosters isolation between communities and even genders, and that in itself leads to extreme opinions and thus the fundamental extremists.

    You can’t tell me that its only 1/1000 muslims that are a problem, when its because of the actions and communities of the other 999 that supported, approved, created the 1.

    Its simply a matter of critical mass.
    The more muslims we invite, the more explosive the results. Small numbers harmless, larger numbers become increasingly explosive.

    • yoyoyo

      hit the nail on the head Bazar.

    • Eiselmann

      Correct, they are compelled to remove corruption (non believers) from all Islamic land and since all land is from Allah that includes peaceful little New Zealand. Some will work the host system others will fight it. In the end its a numbers game when they reach critical mass all hell will break loose. Convert Fight or Die those are the choices our Grandchildren have in front of them.

    • ozbob68

      Bazar, I have seen that sort of lower-level problems in Christian religious organisations too. it’s not restricted to Islam.

      • Bazar

        I’d agree with you
        But islam is far more dangerous and volatile.

        We have no end to the number of muslims and christians telling us how we should be living our lives.
        The difference is that muslims are willing to end their life to destroy ours.

        While its true that christianity has a long list of faults in its history, Islams list is far bloodier, cruller, and frequent.

        I’d also argue that many of the failings of christianity have been political power plays more than teachings of the bible. But that’s debatable.

        Regardless, i don’t have a problem with christians, and i can’t ever see that changing.

        • I.M Bach

          “The difference is that muslims are willing to end their life to destroy ours” and should the host nation ever enter into serious (military) conflict with a Muslim nation you have to ask if the Muslims residing in that host nation are Muslims first or patriots to their host nation. I know where I’d put my money.

        • Eiselmann

          Oft repeated saying….I’m a Christian and I will die for my religion. I’m a Jew and I will die for my religion. I’m a Muslim and you will die for my religion.

  • timemagazine

    SB, you have to include as radicals, the Greens as well, because they support and defand the actions of Islamist jihadis.

  • John1234

    Pious Muslims must also take time out to pray during work hours in a private area. That’s an addition cost and loss of productivity, and therefore money removed from the business owners’ pockets. No thanks.

    • As A shop owner, i can see a use for that, ask them to make up the time spent in prayer working longer, so my shop will stay open longer.

    • I.M Bach

      And; why do they get their own prayer room in some institutions but other religions don’t? I took this picture at a university recently.

      • Elinor_Dashwood

        Because they asked for it? Have you evidence that other religions asked for a prayer room and were declined?

        • I.M Bach

          No, but now that you’ve brought it up I might ask around.

  • Alloytoo

    I’m reminded of the Greek origins of democracy when the citizens of Athens voted to reject Persian rule.

    There is a certain irony that the biggest threat to democracies tend to originate from the former Persian Empire.

    Here’s the bottom line, you cannot negotiate with the madness that is Islamist extremism anymore than you can calm a rabid dog. In both instances the solution is the same.

  • John Ansell

    Brilliant Cam. And as well as keeping out West-hating foreigners, we must call West-hating Westerners what they are: traitors. The enemy within.

    • mike

      That is a very slippery slope to start down. Today it’s someone who doesn’t decree Islam. Tomorrow it’s the person who doesn’t believe in Christ. Next its the person who doesn’t vote for I this party. Where does it stop?

    • MoggieManiac

      I find it always pays to read who writes the posts.

      Thanks, SB. I agree with your statistical premise. One potential terrorist is one too many. One in a thousand is way over the top.

  • Elinor_Dashwood

    Some men are rapists. As a woman, I don’t want to be raped; it’s not a gamble I am willing to take. Therefore all men should be put in prison, no matter how harmless, hard working, intelligent, enterprising they may be, and no matter how much this will offend against justice and long held traditions and values.
    Or: We could try /not/ giving terrorists what they want; not throwing all our values overboard; not being frightened, doubtful, suspicious, hesitant to do what we think right for fear of what terrorists might think; not cowering behind walls that also keep out opportunities and advantage.

    • El Diablo

      Clever analogy, however it doesn’t work. It would of course be completely unrealistic to imprison all men, and doing so would fundamentally change our way of life. However it is perfectly realistic and feasible to halt muslim immigration and doing so does not fundamentally change our way of life.

      I agree with the second part of your post about us not cowering to the terrorists. Instead we should hit them as hard as it takes.

      • Elinor_Dashwood

        No, it isn’t perfectly realistic and feasible to halt muslim immigration. How would you propose to identify who is a muslim? And do you really think it is to our benefit to keep out hard working, intelligent, capable and enterprising people on the off chance that a few of them might turn out to be nutcases? How do you ever find the courage to venture out of your house in the morning?

        • wooted

          We (New Zealand) have a choice as to who we invite into our country. There are plenty of non-Muslims with the attributes to make them good citizens. Sure, the odd one may slip through, but it’s called risk minimisation.

          Also, we do not need to reduce the number of refugees, as there are more than enough of them to pick and choose.

          In hindsight, don’t we wish we had never allowed pit-bulls inti NZ? Same principle.

          • Elinor_Dashwood

            I repeat: How would you identify who is and who is not a Muslim?

          • El Diablo

            We can ask them

          • Elinor_Dashwood

            Good Muslims will fail this test. Bad ones won’t.

          • wooted

            1. Is their (or a family member’s) first or surname Mohamed (or a variation of that)
            2. Ask them
            3. Do they come from a predominantly Muslim country
            4. Give them copy of the Quran and ask them to drop it on the floor
            5. Check for burqas or hijabs
            6. Bacon sandwiches

            That took me all of 5 minutes to work out, and would filter out over 90%

    • BlitzkriegNZ

      Yea and a massive disproportionate percentage of rapists around the world are Muslim. Keep them out, less chance of you being raped.

    • I like your anology there. I also agree with you about standing up for what western culture has grown to admire, our values, our traditions and our hard won rights. The best way to demotivate these extremists is unfortunately long term, educate their young, absorb their young into our culture so they can see through the extremist garbage and help celebrate those aspects of their culture that add value to our society.

      • I.M Bach

        How’s that working out with Maori?

        • Different situation, western culture was immposed on maori by sheer force of numbers, but they were here first and had a significant effect on the incoming culture too.

          • Sam

            If you think any of that matters, you haven’t been paying attention. We can’t play the long game, you know why? They are playing the long game. After one or two generations, they will be the majority across much of Europe.

            In NZ we have more time, but we oughtn’t let it go to waste as they have in France, Germany, UK, etc…

    • Andy

      A Norwegian academic recently stated that Norwegian women need to adjust to the culture of Islam as Muslims don’t consider rape to be a crime.

      I’m prepared to be tolerant of cultural differences but I am not tolerant of cultural relativism

  • mike

    But to make that call you need hard facts. And there simply aren’t any.

    There is plenty of conjecture and speculation, and a boat load of fear… But very little real evidence. We can not condemn an entire religion because of the actions of a few that’s not the way of a reasonable society.

    The worst time to make decisions is when we are afraid. Cooler heads must prevail.

    • wooted

      Who said we are condemning anyone? It’s about choosing who we want to live with.

  • unitedtribes

    I think the last Australian who holed up in a building for a final gunfight was the Catholic Ned Kelly.

    • BlitzkriegNZ

      He didn’t kill people in the name of the pope though. Unfair comparison.

  • mike

    Does anyone see the irony of WO having a post criticizing the McCarthyesque actions of Hague while at the same time having commentators on this post conducting their own form of McCarthyesque action?

    There seems to be a bit of cognitive dissociation going on right now.

    • 1951

      How would you go about protecting the public from people who have the intent to harm like these ISIS sympathisers?

      • NotGandalf

        I’m not sure if you are asking me specifically – but my feeling is that the Government currently has it about right, we need to be able to spy or place on watch anyone who may pose a risk to the safety of others in New Zealand. If one person plans to do harm against many, then the rights of the many outweigh the rights of the one, that is why we have a democratically elected government whose job it is to ensure the safety and security of the people. If a threat is presented as a real and imminent danger, then I believe force should be used. That makes me sound more hard line than I really am, as I am only talking about extreme circumstance.

      • mike

        You can’t eliminate every risk, it’s not possible unfortunately as that may be.

        A lone gun man is almost impossible to stop.

        • 1951

          SB’s and many others observations on other country’s mistakes should not be scoffed at though. Most of us do not want our society changing to adjust to another’s culture. That is at the core of this article really. They come, they are welcomed and accepted if they are prepared to adjust to our ways, our laws, our culture. If they, any immigrant, cannot do just that then maybe they should not remain here. That may be a necessary step in protecting the public. Lone wolf nutjobs, well hopefully those closest to them have the courage to contact authorities long before they reach the stage of this one. That is the least they can do.

          • mike

            But you are happy to change our culture. By denying freedoms hard fought for such as religion, speech and association you are changing our culture. By denying people the opportunities our forefathers had in emigrating here you are chasing our culture.

            I am all for protecting our rights and freedoms, but at what cost?

          • 1951

            It is not changing our culture or anything like it. Sometimes during times of strife governments have the responsibility to take measures not acceptable during times of peace. Like it or not, this is not a time of peace.

          • mike

            When were we ever truly at peace?

          • 1951

            I am thankful my kids reached adulthood without having to share their parents grief as my generation did. That is peace.

          • mike

            Korea. Borneo. Malaysia. Vietnam. East Timor. Gulf War parts 1 and 2. Bosnia. Chechniya ( unsure of correct spelling). Ukraine. Afghanistan (both Soviet and American lead). Those are just a very few of the major conflicts that have occurred since the end of WW2.

            We may have only had soldiers in half a dozen of them, but we have had every generation represented in conflict so far.

            We have never known real peace.

          • 1951

            No in a sense that’s true but our lives here, our neighbourhoods our society were never directly threatened by those conflicts. How long do you believe that can last if we don’t take steps to protect it?

          • mike

            WW1 didn’t directly threaten us either. Of all conflicts that have been fought in modern times only WW2 actually posed a very real threat to NZ.

          • 1951

            So are you saying that you wouldn’t feel threatened by a huge influx of immigrants with a totally different culture from what you know? If so, that would be extraordinary of you. Unlike any other I would say. Now I really have to go and get some work done.

          • mike

            More Chinese emigrate to NZ than those from Muslim countries, it’s one of the fastest growing demographics in NZ… and their culture is completely difference from my Western European/Kiwi culture and I’m not threatened by them.

          • 1951


    • NotGandalf

      I dont disagree with you, but if I understand the majority of the comments being made here, the main concern is around the extremist minority. To take SB’s argument a little further – a school of 3000 is going to include at least a couple of murderers, a few rapists, several dozen drug dealers, hundreds of drink drivers, con artists and thieves at some stage in their lives (and obviously not all at once). If one or two of those kids are extremist, or from famiiies that allow exposure to religious extremism, then I would be very watchful.
      This means that risk is already here.

      • mike

        As I read SB’s post and several comments i saw calls to stop all immigration of Muslims because we can’t identify who the possible bag guys are.

        That is an irrational response to the situation.

        • spanishbride

          It could be IF we didn’t already have countries a few years ahead of us in the immigration stakes who are now having extreme problems. We either learn from their mistakes or we are going to get what they have got. Once their Muslim immigration population got to a certain percentage the touble began. It is not irrational to observe what has already happened in other Western countries and to choose to act differently to them in order to get a different outcome.

          • mike

            It’s not Islam that is the problem. It’s a symptom.

            We need to ask why Islam had become a hotbed for radicalism and terrorism. Why are young men so willing to fight and die?

            Look at the similarities between these radicalized youth and the youth who join gangs. What do they have in common?

          • 1951

            Simple…..they’re not loved, they’re not wanted (or at least believe it).

          • mike

            And they have little or no education. Probably no job. No hope. No real future. And they have their generations attitude where it is all someone else’s fault.

            What do they have to live for?

          • 1951

            They can endevour to change that for a more positive outcome. It is still a pretty egalitarian society, it just takes the right attitude.

          • MoggieManiac

            “And they have little or no education. Probably no job. No hope. No real future.”
            And you would put the radical Muslim clerics in that category?

          • mike

            No. But the money men and the leaders never are.

        • friardo

          That is the ONLY available response to the situation and therefore entirely rational. Check out ShugMcGlumfer post above. Islam is by it’s own definitions radical and genocidally aggressive. Because the Quran is the instruction manual for all of Islam it will continue to prey on the weak with their dreams of power and domination. The Quran is Islam and Islam is Sharia. Don’t take my word for it, check it out for yourself. The most dangerous of them are very highly educated. Regrettably, Islam is the problem.

  • ShugMcGlumfer

    This has been posted before but worth watching again!

    • David Peterson