Three days out, the forecasters say NYE will be crap, what do you reckon?

We are three days out from New Year’s Eve.

The weather forecasters are predicting rain and more rain, and a rubbish night.

The chance of perfect summer weather to welcome the arrival of 2015 is looking unlikely throughout most of the country, with the best chance possibly in the east of the lower North Island.

MetService is predicting a run of sunny, warm days with highs in the mid-20 degrees Celsius for Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, including on December 31. Rain is expected to arrive sometime on the first day of the New Year. The key to a good night may be the timing of the weather’s flip to the bad side.

For Auckland and the traditional party spots of the Bay of Plenty and Coromandel Peninsula MetService is predicting an end to the sun with rain and northerlies to arrive sometime on Wednesday, lasting into Thursday. Hamilton may be a better bet, with no rain predicted in the Waikato centre until the first day of 2015.  

Revellers planning to see in 2015 in Northland will be hoping the forecasters change their tune in the next few days. For now rain with northerlies are being predicted for much of the region on December 31, although Whangarei is shown as only cloudy, with rain throughout Northland by Thursday.

Rain is predicted for New Plymouth on Wednesday and Thursday, while Wellington is expected to be dry on New Year’s Eve, with showers the next day.

Nelson’s reputation as a warm, dry holiday mecca is on the line, with MetService predicting rain on Wednesday, although by Thursday the outlook is showing just a few showers. The outlook is similar for Marlborough and Kaikoura, although the worst of the rain could be gone by midnight on December 31.

Rain on Wednesday with morning showers on Thursday is the prediction for the Canterbury Plains, including Christchurch, as well as for North Otago, Dunedin and Southland.

Even Central Otago is expected to have some rain on December 31, although MetService is showing clouds but no showers for January 1.

Rain suits me just fine…less fools letting off fireworks or drunks trying to outwit waves on the beach.

What do you reckon…chance it for a party or listen to weather forecasters?


– Fairfax


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  • conwaycaptain

    These are the ‘experts’ who tell us what the weather will be like in 50 years time with high temps and sea levels blatty blatty blah but cannot forecast 3 days out

    • Curious

      I say that a lot to people and it is amazing how many agree with me. I am beginning to think that out in the real world the so called experts have lost and it will only take one small spark to ignite the revolt.
      I am not talking “the revolution” or leftie friends hope for but a revolt back to common sense, just hope we don’t have to have a dare ages first.

  • Cadwallader

    By New Year’s Day the oceans will be wall-to-wall acid!

  • Mad Captain

    Couldn’t be happier, especially if it stops the tossers next door launching fireworks over the fence at our poor horses…

    • Pharmachick

      Condolences about the fireworks … we don’t have to worry about them where I live, but pheasant hunting season always has us on edge. Especially the first Sunday when there’s always SOME cowboy that shoots in the out-of-bounds area(s) and gets escorted off by the Game Warden (permit immediately cancelled and confiscated). I swear that one day I’ll end up committing some sort of criminal act because some city cowboy has “accidentally” shot one of our horses. We keep them in the stables/shed as much as possible but the gun noises scare the you-know-what out of them when they get too close.

  • mommadog

    With no forecasting skills at all I predict a shower or two during the day on the 31st in coastal areas. Hamilton will remain dry. The evening will be fine everywhere so lots of fireworks and drunks being arrested in holiday areas and then a downpour and washout at several camping areas in the New Year. Unfortunately none of the stupid media people will be washed out.

  • cows4me

    Spent all day yesterday helping neighbors put their hay away as the rain is suppose to be coming. The Sky Larks are diving down straight into the paddock rather than flying around, the mountain has a cap on it and the dog turned around three times before sitting on the deck this morning. Yep it’s going to rain.

    • Platinum Fox

      I’m surprised that you need three indicators in the ‘naki these days Cows – I always thought that the old standby of “if you can see the mountain it’s going to rain and if you can’t see the mountain it’s raining” was all you needed there.
      When I was an NP lad, if asked for a rain prediction, my late father sometimes used say “it won’t rain for a fortnight” or “if you don’t like the weather, wait half an hour” to indicate his view of the weather’s changeability.

  • GoingRight

    Well actually I don’t care what the weather is going to do this week, but if anyone knows the forecast for sat Feb 7 as we have our youngest daughter’s beach wedding which will be fabulous if the rain stays away! Venue is Auckland Firth of Thames side.

  • Steve (North Shore)

    31st day will be overcast, hot and humid with a NE breeze developing in the afternoon/evening. Showers on New Year Day.
    Remember to look at Rangitoto, if you can see it then it is going to rain; if you can’t see Rangitoto it is raining

    • johcar

      “if you can’t see Rangitoto it is raining” … or nighttime…

  • Whafe

    It still stuns me to this day that with all new technology etc etc etc, forecasting just doesn’t improve one bit in my opinion….

    In primary production, the weather is pretty dam important, but none the less forecasting doesn’t improve one bit from 40 years ago

    • Cadwallader

      Phone Russell Norman he knows everything about everything! He’ll tell you about the future infernos which today pass as climate.

      • TonyM

        Ask the climate change guys to model what tomorrow will be like :-)

  • Blue Tim

    The best forecast for NZ comes from They are far more accurate forecasters using the same data that Met Service does

    • David

      Agree. They predict fine weather in Christchurch for New Year’s Day.

  • Wendy

    Suits me just fine too. Im working.

    • johcar

      Except on the roads… :(

  • Chris EM

    I’m predicting a dry Waikato, possibly some showers on the eastern ranges.
    A few days ago they said it will be raining in Hamilton all weekend. We have totally the opposite.

  • Rodger T

    The Met service has gone to the pack since they threw away their weather rock.

  • Wallace Westland

    Bet it’s nice and dry tucked up snug in my bed or possibly standing on the deck to watch Skycity and the halfwits in the neighbourhood lighting fireworks if the beer hasn’t overtaken me by then.

    Making no promises :)

  • oldmanNZ

    they forecasted with their multi million $ radars and computers that it was going to rain yesterday and tomorrow?

    I think they can only forecast like 12 hours ahead, They probably want another $10M of funding so they can forecast 24hours ahead accurately, and $100m to forecast the effect of global warming in 100 year time.

  • caochladh

    I have been driving to work in the early AM, windscreen wipers on full and the announcer on the radio is telling me its fine day. Why can’t these people just look out the window?

  • Tom

    All those campers can’t expect to have good weather at Christmas as well as New Year.

  • gambler

    like the MSM i no longer rely on them to provide reliable information.. i source local weather from other means… usually this website is more right than wrong… and yes it is based in Europe but i assume they use the same data from NZ that the NZ media gets

  • seismac

    I am sorry none of the new breed of forecaster can tell the weather
    If you note most who appear on TV or on the radio are foreign ie from the uk and thus don’t understand the nuances of local weather If you need to know whats going to happen ask a local fisherman – we depend for our lives on knowing the weather

  • Sunshine

    If it rains, let’s hope it deters the morons who feel the need to let off even more fireworks as if the last couple of months weren’t enough.

  • ken

    NYE will be fine down here in Otago,,we on drought alert