Who is Andrew Little? Ctd – Is he Electable?

Andrew Little has run in New Plymouth twice now, and lost badly twice. Incumbent National MP Jonathan Young gave him a sound beating in 2011 and absolutely destroyed him in 2014.

At the 5.45 mark of his first press conference as leader he was asked about this. “Andrew Little you got whipped in New Plymouth, how can you beat John Key nationwide.

Lets take a look at the results in New Plymouth.

Little Young Margin Little Diff Young Diff Margin Diff
2011 13,374 17,644 4,270 -1,586 3,922 5,508
2014 11,788 21,566 9,778
Labour National Margin
2011 8,761 18,073 9,312 -814 2,896 3,710
2014 7,947 20,969 13,022

So over two elections Andrew Little has managed to turn New Plymouth into a safe National seat, increase the National Party vote and reduce the Labour Party vote. This is against Jonathan Young, who is not seen as a star inside National.

In fairness to Little even though Young is a former pastor he is also as cunning as a shithouse rat and ran one of the greatest campaigns in New Zealand history when he had ten weeks to beat the very popular Harry Duynhoven in 2008.

Andrew Little will face repeated calls to show he is electable, and that the people of New Plymouth were wrong when they gave him the bum’s rush two elections in a row.

It is important to note that is not just Little’s personal vote that fell in New Plymouth. His campaign managed to lower the all important Party Vote too.

It is fair to assume that National will return to parliament with some great sledges about how Little can’t even increase his own vote in his home town.

 


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  • ozbob68

    “cunning as a ….” never heard that version on Blackadder. :)

  • In Vino Veritas

    Of course, he didn’t answer the question. He’ll be taking those “experiences” with him when he runs against John Key. That would be the experience of being smashed. And of course, he is going to campaign on the same things Cunliffe did, the things that matter to New Zealanders. Remarkable, different loser, same campaign.

  • Justsayn

    Of course he is electable!

    His caucus colleagues elected him leader of the Labour Party, no, hold on… The members of the Labour Party elected him leader of the Labour Party, no, hold on… Union members elected him leader of the Labour Party, no, hold on… Union officials elected him leader of the Labour Party. There you go. Magnetic personality, trustworthy, exudes competence and control.

    • Reaper

      Well I’m sure his mother will … oh, no hold on …

    • Sally

      Sure he is electable, he has got Matt McCarten covering his back.
      Oh wait, that didn’t work out for the last unelectable leader.

    • Dave

      Like a true labour leader, you only had two words right in your entire comment – Exudes Control.

  • Pluto

    You know you’ve got problems when you have to tell people you have a sense of humour.
    Comedy ain’t his game, he just looks like a fool.
    So Angry Andy it is then, if 2014 was the year of the apology, 2015 will be the year of the crisis.

  • sandalwood789

    Labour – replacing the driver of the same old dunger of a car and expecting a different result.
    Is he electable? Very unlikely.

  • Monty

    I think Annette king will retire at the next election. I hope not, as although I’d never vote for her ( I can’t as she is in the neighbouring electorate) I believe Annette is one of the more effective Labour MPs. But Annette will retire and I expect Andrew Little to try and win that seat. If National were smart they should be lining up someone who can win this seat from labour.

    • peterwn

      See:
      http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorate-46.html

      Annette has a personal following far greater than the party vote would indicate. Even if National made a push for the seat, Green voters would swing in behind the Labour candidate as they do in Wellington Central.

      Russell Norman could throw down a challenge and demand Labour go easy on the candidate vote in Rongotai as a quid pro quo for Greens supporting Grant Robertson in Wellington Central.

      • Cadwallader

        These options are pinioned on the increasingly unlikely prospect of Russel and Grant Robertson still being around in 2017. Surely the Greenie leaders will realize they are never going to form a government because their policies are stupid and odious, and at the same time Grant must ultimately recognize his own inability to be a leader. Before 2017, I expect Annette King, Mallard, Cunners, Robertson and Parker to leave. Their replacements are anybody’s guess?

  • kloyd0306

    Clearly, the union leadership has the tin ear of all tin ears by “imposing” Little on the Labour Party.

    This is GREAT news. It means that Labour has NO chance in 2017.

  • Nebman

    Little has never been seen as a New Plymouth local and it will always count against him. You don’t announce to the electorate you are hoping to serve that you’ll buy a house and live in the electorate if you win which he did prior to the 2011 election.

    Consequently he’ll never win New Plymouth and he’ll never stand here again. He’ll be number one on the list and leave it at that.

    Young may come across as a numpty but he’s a local numpty and likable enough. He won’t set the world on fire politically but he’s harmless and works hard. He’s also very visable locally which does not hurt him at all.

    Labour don’t have anyone locally without the union taint and all they can do is hope to sway someone like Peter Tennant (previous mayor) to jump ship to their side. Can’t see that happening any time soon.

  • Warren Murray

    Arrogant Labour nominated a carpet bagger in 2011. New Plymouth rejected the carpet bagger and when Labour did the same in 2014, New Plymouth sent back the same answer with emphasis.

    I also wonder what the locals were saying to Labour when they dumped Dynhoven as Mayor? Shame they elected Apartheid Judd as the new Mayor, but that can be fixed next time.

  • Adam Michaels

    I see Duynhoven is trying to make a comeback and standing for a by election in the New Plymouth District Council. Maybe he sees himself as the 2017 Labour candidate here. Gosh two losers wanting to stand for Labour.

  • dgrogan

    We are now understanding what New Plymouth voters have know for years. Angry Andy Little is unelectable.

  • Dog Breath

    While its convenient to blame labour’s loss in New Plymouth to angry Andy its probably has more to do with Labour’s rather public view on oil exploration. Oil is a huge deal to New Plymouth so negative talk about oil was always going to influence voters regardless of who Labour put up.

  • Sir Cullen’s Sidekick

    Very simple. Handy Andy will move out of NP and stand in a safe Labour seat and win.

    • Tom

      Thats great for New Plymouth. I’m thinking of moving there.

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