Nats up again in latest poll, Labour is too, but they shanked the Greens and NZ First

Andrew little

Andrew Little digests the latest polls, discovers he’s eating gruel

The latest 3News poll is out and if you listened to Patrick Gower you’d think Labour and Andrew Little had a blinder.

The sad fact is they haven’t.

Commentators used to go on about National not having or cannibalising support partners…despite for three elections now they have managed to put together a credible coalition with support partners.

Labour on the other hand is gaining in the polls by cannibalising their support partners and still not having enough numbers to govern.

One rule of politics is you need to learn how to count, and Labour and Patrick Gower still can’t count.

3 News-Reid Research poll, taken January 20-28, 2015
1000 people polled, margin of error +/- 3.1 percent

  • National – 49.8 percent, up 2.8 percent on election night result
  • Labour – 29.1 percent, up 4 percent
  • Green – 9.3 percent, down 1.4 percent
  • New Zealand First – 6.9 percent, down 1.9 percent
  • Conservative – 2.7 percent, down 1.3 percent
  • Maori – 1.3 percent, N/C
  • Internet Mana – 0.6 percent, down 0.8 percent
  • ACT – 0.4 percent, down 0.3 percent
  • United Future – 0 percent, down 0.2 percent

Being able to count matters…why?

Seats in house:

  • National – 62
  • Maori – 2
  • Act – 1
  • United Future – 1

Govt total: 66

  • Labour – 36
  • Green – 12
  • New Zealand First – 8

Opposition total: 56

Total seats: 122

And poor old Andrew Little is keeping company with Helen Clark in the popularity stakes…and likely to stay there due to his nasty, mean, and dour disposition.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key – 44 percent, up 3.9 percent
  • Andrew Little – 9.8 percent (debut)

A more thinking political journalists would look at the next set of numbers rather than their manufactured question designed to make Andrew Little look good.

How the leaders are performing?

Andrew Little:

  • Performing well – 45 percent
  • Performing poorly – 17 percent

John Key:

  • Well – 63 percent
  • Poorly – 24 percent

Is he a capable leader?

  • Andrew Little – 54 percent say yes
  • John Key – 81 percent say yes

As you can see those who think John Key is performing poorly is just 24%…about the level of the real Labour support…but think this through…not even all those Labour, Green and NZ First supporters think John Key is performing badly.

The answer is all in the numbers, you just have to remove your blinkers and the editorial slant of 3News and Patrick Gower.


– 3 News

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story.  And when he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet.   Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet, and as a result he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist that takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him.  But you can’t ignore him.