Nats up again in latest poll, Labour is too, but they shanked the Greens and NZ First

Andrew little

Andrew Little digests the latest polls, discovers he’s eating gruel

The latest 3News poll is out and if you listened to Patrick Gower you’d think Labour and Andrew Little had a blinder.

The sad fact is they haven’t.

Commentators used to go on about National not having or cannibalising support partners…despite for three elections now they have managed to put together a credible coalition with support partners.

Labour on the other hand is gaining in the polls by cannibalising their support partners and still not having enough numbers to govern.

One rule of politics is you need to learn how to count, and Labour and Patrick Gower still can’t count.

3 News-Reid Research poll, taken January 20-28, 2015
1000 people polled, margin of error +/- 3.1 percent

  • National – 49.8 percent, up 2.8 percent on election night result
  • Labour – 29.1 percent, up 4 percent
  • Green – 9.3 percent, down 1.4 percent
  • New Zealand First – 6.9 percent, down 1.9 percent
  • Conservative – 2.7 percent, down 1.3 percent
  • Maori – 1.3 percent, N/C
  • Internet Mana – 0.6 percent, down 0.8 percent
  • ACT – 0.4 percent, down 0.3 percent
  • United Future – 0 percent, down 0.2 percent

Being able to count matters…why?

Seats in house:

  • National – 62
  • Maori – 2
  • Act – 1
  • United Future – 1

Govt total: 66

  • Labour – 36
  • Green – 12
  • New Zealand First – 8

Opposition total: 56

Total seats: 122

And poor old Andrew Little is keeping company with Helen Clark in the popularity stakes…and likely to stay there due to his nasty, mean, and dour disposition.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • John Key – 44 percent, up 3.9 percent
  • Andrew Little – 9.8 percent (debut)

A more thinking political journalists would look at the next set of numbers rather than their manufactured question designed to make Andrew Little look good.

How the leaders are performing?

Andrew Little:

  • Performing well – 45 percent
  • Performing poorly – 17 percent

John Key:

  • Well – 63 percent
  • Poorly – 24 percent

Is he a capable leader?

  • Andrew Little – 54 percent say yes
  • John Key – 81 percent say yes

As you can see those who think John Key is performing poorly is just 24%…about the level of the real Labour support…but think this through…not even all those Labour, Green and NZ First supporters think John Key is performing badly.

The answer is all in the numbers, you just have to remove your blinkers and the editorial slant of 3News and Patrick Gower.


– 3 News


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  • Euan Ross-Taylor

    Little has one thing going for him, he has the balls to not feel the need to wear a pink shirt and red tie.

    • Bartman

      Or say sorry countless times on the off chance it garner’s him some support!

  • chrisgale

    You need those small parties and their one safe seat. For without it, 49% will not do. Labour needs tame parties — the equivalent of ACT. Or, better, to dump MMP (A boy can dream).

  • Richard

    Very apt pic of Angry Andy as JK is about to give him an education in politics this year……breakfast in schools indeed.

    • Cadwallader

      When he tries to look human he looks creepy.
      I note the msm is winding up the Poll as a “beginnig of the end” situation for JK and the Nats, plus they’re piling in about the difficult questions JK will face over Sabin. Isn’t it time to spit back with a few “dirty politics” morsels? If you can’t find dirty politics then the filthy politics will suffice.

  • Bryan

    how can you have 81% saying john Key is capable and 54 % saying little is,
    that is more than 100% they add up to 135% really ? maths TV3

    • mike

      Two questions, each with their own answer. Both questions were yes or no… so you could conceivable say yes to both.

      • Rod

        People are rating them at how they are performing in their respective positions. It is certainly possible for someone to perform well as leader of the opposition but may never be able to perform well as Prime Minister – and vice versa.

        • mike

          Considering the question was “Is he a capable leader?” then you can say yes to both. They weren’t asking if he was a good PM, both are leaders of their respective parties.

          But one must ask what or who are they comparing Andy against? Is in in comparison to Key, or Cunliffe/Goff/Shearer… because compared to the last three he’s doing quite well, but then again its not hard to be better than a trio of numpties.

  • Adios Africa

    This is why kids go to school hungry, Andrew is eating their breakfasts.

  • Hard1

    A. Little has 45% rating as performing well by getting dressed all by himself every morning, followed by reading some vague script about supporting small business by making life harder for them by raising the minimum wage and forcing them to employ unemloyable muppets. You go,girl. Stand up for your rights.

  • conwaycaptain

    That is the second photo in a few weeks that shows him looking stupid

    • hookerphil

      This one was on the Stuff feed, perhaps this is the best of the best – other than his Christmas one of course.

  • Raibert

    The stunning thing about this poll is that there are still people who support Internet Mana. Obviously some people are easily led and fooled.

    • SlightlyStrange

      Yes, I thought they had announced their split? Or were husband and I mistaken?

      • Raibert

        Right, it really shows how little thought some people put into poll answers. Also the pollsters by allowing an answer to include a non existing party are very lax, makes you wonder about validity of the poll. Although I do think they probably got the United Future support about right.

  • corporate refugee

    A quick glance at the headlines of articles in the likes of the Herald will confirm that the NZ MSM continues trying to talk up Labour and the Left. Its why I, and probably thousands of others, no longer watch, read, or listen to their self-serving propaganda. I prefer news.

  • Charlie

    If 45% think Little is performing well and 17% think he isn’t do we conclude that the other 38% don’t even know who he is or they can’t tell. This must mean that 55% are really saying that he is not performing well or just not performing at all.

  • fergus

    Poor old pat.

    The main result here (that you fail to mention)….Nation govern ALONE.

  • kaykaybee

    Any media organisation with integrity or journo concerned for their reputation should be too embarrassed to portray this poll as other than the continuing Labour trainwreck it is. They can spin it how they like but anyone with half a brain sees it as this:

    “High polling NATIONAL dominates LABOUR on all fronts”

  • Eiselmann

    Oh lord that photo….Angry Andrew did you learn nothing from the evil elf photo at the public feeding on Christmas Day.

  • Justsayn

    9.8% for Little – what a loser.

    I was staggered at the way the Herald tried to paint Little’s 9.8% as a good performance. 9.8 means that two thirds of the people the said they would vote for Labour (29.1 in this the same poll) wanted to have the leader of the Labour Party as their PM. That is a shocker.

    Any leader of any party should, at an absolute minimum, get about 75% of the parties own supporters, anything less and they ought to be considering a resignation. Good ones might match their party’s performance. The really good ones might better than their party.

    Little has a lot of work to do before the public start taking him as anything more than an angry caretaker.

    • KGB

      Little will, ( like the Greens ), celebrate that 1 in 10 people support him. Sounds so much better than 90% don’t.

    • ex-JAFA

      He may just be pleased that his support from the wider public is greater than the support he enjoys with the party membership… or even his own caucus.

  • Kiwikea

    Is the problem the media still report polls as FPP as opposed to MMP. Yes they show how it works out as seats in the house but they assume that Labour/NZ First/ Greens will have a coalition. It’s never going to happen, Winston will never ever let the Greens into government.

    • Mick Ie

      Never say never. Didn’t RN and Winston both want the Finance portfolio if they won the last election? With one gone and no-one else really capable of taking it on that would be one very tasty pot of honey to put in front of Winnie. He is so ambitious and power hungry he’d sell his soul and throw in his own grandmother for good measure.

  • Kiwikea

    Surely the worry for Labour is that National supporters are giving Little due respect as any new leader deserves. Labour conversely never rated John Key for arguably two election cycles & they are still playing catch up.
    Better to respect the new leader and find out they are useless, than to underestimate & it’s too late.

  • Lemuzz

    He looks like he has puked in a bowl of breakfast cereal

    • Cadwallader

      Absolutely! I wonder what the little girl said to him? “Gosh you’re the fourth labour leader to visit me in 3 years!” “Dad said you look just like Helen Clark and you do!”

  • taurangaruru

    Why does Little always look so silly in photographs – is this intentional?