A reader emails about Northland

A reader emails some back of the envelope calculations about Northland.

There is another way to look at the Northland by election.  Rather hypothetical and pointless but interesting.

In 2014 there were 35,000 votes cast in Northland.   In the by election there were 28,500 or 81.5% of the 2014 result.

Labour got 8,969 votes in 2014.  In the by election they got 1,315.  8,969 – 1,315 X 81.5% = 6,238.  That’s a reasonable calculation of the Labour votes that got given to Peters.

The Greens got 3,639 votes in 2014.  No candidate in the by election. Their votes apparently also went to Peters.  3,639 X 81.4% = 2,962.  Total of Labour and Greens transferred vote 6,236 + 2,962 = 9,198.

If we deduct the 9,198 from Peters’ 15,359 we have 6,161.  That is 5,186 less than National got.  Peters on his own didn’t get many votes on his own.  In fact he was trounced by the National guy except that National deserted their own.  Where did Peters’ 5,186 votes comes from?   

National got 18,269 votes in 2014 and 11,347 in the by election.  18,269 – 11,347 = 6,922 X 81.4% = 5,634.  That is very close to the 5,189 above.

So 28% of the Nats (5189/18,269) teamed up with obedient Labour and Red/Green voters to give Peters his win.  That, of course presumes that there were no original NZF voters in Northland and one could presume there were probably 1,000 or so.

Questions:

  1. What drove nearly a third of the Nats to turn?
    • Poorer quality candidate?
    • Give them a message?
    • Too much pork?
  1. Why were labour and the Red/Greens so successful in getting their voters to go with Peters?
    • Brilliant leadership by Little and Turei
    • Sheep like voters
  1. How will Peters respond when he does the numbers?
    • Work out a deal with Labour and the Greens?
    • Treat Labour and the Greens with disdain and go with the baubles (London post??)
    • Set Northland up for Jones in 2017?

Interesting questions, and the answers will be even more interesting.


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