No Christmas joy for Labour from last Herald poll of year

Despite headlines last night screaming that Andrew Little has risen in the polls, from 13.3% to 16.2% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes he was still 49% behind John Key. But more on the preferred Prime Minister polling in another post.

Matters were a whole lot worse for Labour this morning after the promise of last night’s headlines. They have watched National’s polling remain sky-high and after all their manufactured scandals this year National is still polling at over 50%.

National has finished the first year of its third term in as strong a position as it was a year ago, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

It has the support of 51.3 per cent of voters, up slightly on the last poll in August (50.8) and on the same poll a year ago (50.4).

Prime Minister John Key won a third term in September last year with 47.04 per cent for National.

Labour polled just 25.13 per cent at last year’s election when David Cunliffe was leader. Andrew Little has been leader for only a year but appears to have pulled the party out of the demoralising 20s and into more stable territory, at 31.1, up by 0.1.

Support for major parties usually bleeds away in an election campaign, so 31.1% isn’t any buffer to stay out of the 20s.


The full results are:

Party Support

  • National 51.3% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.1% (+0.1%)
  • Green 8.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (-1.2%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+1.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.


Preferred PM

  • John Key 65.2% (+1.5%)
  • Andrew Little 16.2% (+2.9%)
  • Winston Peters 7.9% (-3.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.8% (-1.1%)


– NZ Herald

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