Another poll confirms Labour’s 35% pipe-dream still isn’t real

I know it is the Roy Morgan, but Labour have claimed for years that this is the most accurate poll, despite the numbers going up and down like a whore’s drawers.

This poll shows that Labour are still languishing below 30%, much lower than when David Shearer was leader.

During March support for National fell 2.5% to 46% – the lowest since September 2015, now only 4% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42% (up 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% (up 3%) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, unchanged at 1%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 28% (up 1%), Greens 14% (down 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3% to 9% – its highest level of support in over a decade since August 2005. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

The balance is held by Winston…and I’m not convinced he’d go with Labour and the Greens. The reality is that Labour need a three-way coalition to stumble over the line. A deal with National and Winston makes it a two-way proposition and plenty of comfort.

This poll shows that the public have no confidence in a Little-led Labour party and Winston Peters is now showing promise as a real alternative.

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The poor deluded folk over at The Standard think this is fantastic. The reality is that forming a government with the main party buried under 30% is a long shot, especially with a leader whose negatives are so strong, as our exclusive Incite/Curia polling showed this month.

Labour needs to be mid-30s to be credible; they show no signs of even approaching those numbers.

 

– Roy Morgan


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