Farrar on the One News Poll

David Farrar has some useful comparisons on the polls at the same stage of the electoral cycle:

It is almost half way through National’s third term, so it is useful to compare it to the same poll halfway through National’s second term.

In April 2013 National was at 43% and Labour 36% – a 7% gap.

In April 2016 National is at 50% and Labour 28% – a 22% gap.  

This is the lowest Labour has been since the election, and also the highest National has been. And taken after the flag referendum which Labour were convinced would damage National, so they opposed change against their own policy. Nice outcome guys.

Little is also at 7% Preferred Prime Minister. This is the lowest for a Labour Leader since May 2010. He is now 3% behind Peters.

Labour said in December 2014 their aim was to be polling at 40% by the end of 2015. It’s April 2016 and they’re in the 20s.

If I was a Labour MP, I’d be asking what exactly do they think will change in the next 18 months, so it isn’t a repeat of the last 18 months?

This highlights Labour’s real problem. They are supposed to be inexorably climbing to a winning 40% but they are actually slipping backwards. Furthermore there is a thought inside caucus that 35% would be enough.

They are wrong. Labour traditionally slips in the final week of an election, at 28% they are in real danger of slipping below Cunliffe’s disastrous result. Bill English will be hoping they beat his 2002 result to get that monkey off his back.

 

– Kiwiblog


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story.  And when he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet.   Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet, and as a result he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist that takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him.  But you can’t ignore him.

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