Farrar on the One News Poll

David Farrar has some useful comparisons on the polls at the same stage of the electoral cycle:

It is almost half way through National’s third term, so it is useful to compare it to the same poll halfway through National’s second term.

In April 2013 National was at 43% and Labour 36% – a 7% gap.

In April 2016 National is at 50% and Labour 28% – a 22% gap.  

This is the lowest Labour has been since the election, and also the highest National has been. And taken after the flag referendum which Labour were convinced would damage National, so they opposed change against their own policy. Nice outcome guys.

Little is also at 7% Preferred Prime Minister. This is the lowest for a Labour Leader since May 2010. He is now 3% behind Peters.

Labour said in December 2014 their aim was to be polling at 40% by the end of 2015. It’s April 2016 and they’re in the 20s.

If I was a Labour MP, I’d be asking what exactly do they think will change in the next 18 months, so it isn’t a repeat of the last 18 months?

This highlights Labour’s real problem. They are supposed to be inexorably climbing to a winning 40% but they are actually slipping backwards. Furthermore there is a thought inside caucus that 35% would be enough.

They are wrong. Labour traditionally slips in the final week of an election, at 28% they are in real danger of slipping below Cunliffe’s disastrous result. Bill English will be hoping they beat his 2002 result to get that monkey off his back.

 

– Kiwiblog

 


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  • R&BAvenger

    It’s all a right wing conspiracy, the polls are rigged and it’s all John Key’s fault. Have I left anything out from tinfoil hat land?

    • the missing million.

      and the perennial “they only polled landlines so it’s only 65+ age group they’re polling.”

      Those are the ones I’ve seen so far.

      • Whitey

        And of course all old people vote National. It’s not like there are fairly large numbers of tribal Labour voters in that older age group, who have voted Labour all their lives and aren’t going to change even with Captain Y-Fronts at the helm…

        I predict Labour will be in serious trouble when those baby boomers start to pass away.

      • Annoyed

        If it was only 65+ then surely Winston would be polling much much higher right? Or am I missing something?

      • In Vino Veritas

        The correct response to the “65+ age group” argument, and any other such arguments is that the pollsters do not poll teeth grindingly stupid people. Therefore, its entirely possible that the polls are skewed, but not for the reason, or in the proportions that Labour supporters claim.

    • JustanObserver

      If you want your Monday-morning amusement … skip over to the red-blog, it has more fire & brimstone than Lucifer’s house, and more comedy than the Apollo Live.
      Keys fault this, JK rigged that, corrupt PM something else !!

      • R&BAvenger

        Aided and abetted by the GCSB, CIA, SIS, MI6, the Mossad, the Masons, shape-shifting Lizards, Dark Lords of the Sith, Martians, Klingons, Romulans and the Briscoes lady.

        • Damon Mudgway

          Sales of rolls of tin foil must be through the roof:-)

          • Dave

            I think they have moved on to rolls of unformed Galvanized Steel such is the need for heavy duty deflection. No doubt some labour supporters are searching the internet for plans of Ned Kellys steel suit, such is the predicament.

        • JustanObserver

          You had to raise the Briscoes lady didn’t you?
          That’s a conspiracy right there…
          She hasn’t aged in 25 years!

          • R&BAvenger

            plus you mustn’t forget the effect of the regular chemtrail flights throughout the country, especially in and out of Auckland…..

          • pisces8284 .

            Yes the wig is a great disguise, she is really Angela Merkel

          • In Vino Veritas

            Yes she has, they just blur her amazingly now……. and then there is the wig. The heinous wig…..

        • kayaker

          I hear Briscoes is having a sale!

        • R&BAvenger

          Ooo, I forgot – DIRTY POLITICS, as well.

  • Seriously?

    The preferred PM stakes is interesting. Winston’s rating really says that everyone who would vote for his party also wants him to be PM. No surprise there. Even though “everyone” is a bit hopeful, with NZ First the party is Winston and you would not vote fot them if you didn’t like him.

    For Little, even with the party languishing on 28%, only 1 in 4 of those that say they would vote Labour want the leader of the Labour party to be PM? Now for a less personality driven party, you might think that should be 70% or so (some will want up and comers or past forces) but 1 in 4 is terrible.

    • And Jacinda is on 2% (higher than Grant who has gone up 0.2% and is now on 0.6%)

  • 61dart

    Andrew Little enthuses that there is a “fantastic” group of new candidates waiting in the wings to rescue the Labour party at the next election. They will mostly be no-names who will have to be in parliament at least one (or two) terms to make any sort of rescuing impact for Labour. So it looks like the best possible outcome for Labour is National will win the next two elections and then Labour just might get another go at the treasury benches. By then Annette King and her ilk will be casting their list member votes from their rest homes.

    • Seriously?

      Is that a tacit admission from Little that the current crop of Labour MPs are good for nothing?

      It not the old timers like King they are the main problem, they win their seats, it is the “modern swing to the lefters” they need to route.

    • Damon Mudgway

      Andrew Little will the single biggest reason Labour will again be trounced at the next election. When will that party ever learn?

    • Dave

      By “fantastic” he probably means, people like me, unionists, the ones who know how to tell a country what to do, and when. I think little Andy if confusing Fantastic, with fanatical!

  • Damon Mudgway

    Advice for the Labour Party from me. Sack your entire list of MP’s that failed to win their constituency, nominate some average Joe kiwis with some nouse and positivity, and give me some actual reasons to vote for you. Until then, it’s obvious you’re doomed to failure.

    • OneTrack

      But, but, they don’t know anty average kiwis. They were all culled during the last purge.

  • shykiwibloke

    Recall Labour said that 2016 was the year they were going to really get going in a focussed way. May I suggest to the party leadership that they go back to doing nothing like last year as it seemed to give a better polling result.

  • Kevin

    The more their poll numbers go down, the more entrenched Labour gets in their belief that polls don’t matter and that it’s sticking to your principles that count.

    • Uncle Bully

      And they’re right. We should encourage them to stick to their current principles, and hence remain irrelevant to the majority of ordinary working New Zealanders. After all, their principles are aligned with the unions, the troughers, the bludgers and the criminals. And they wonder why they don’t appeal to mainstream voters.

  • johnnyB

    Key is safe – Andy when interviewed on this result says he must keep getting his message out and talk to the electorate on issues that matter – then in the next breath said the Panama revelations would not have been factored into this Poll……..

    • Aucky

      The poll closed last Wednesday night. Plenty of time I would have thought for those people polled to have formed an opinion. But hey, if it helps Andy sleep at night he can believe what he wants.

    • Alan Beresford B’Stard

      Lame from Little, you can say that about any poll. There’s always something going on which could affect poll results.

    • zotaccore

      Agreed. And that is the problem “getting his message out…” the message is wrong so therefore the conclusion must be that the results will get worse over time. Change the message and maybe he’d have a chance. His biggest problem is his persona though – something that can’t be changed.

  • Aucky

    The left just doesn’t learn.Two obviously pre-planned assaults on the Government this morning are totally irrelevant in view of the poll results. Shaw attacking the PM on going into a defensive mode over the Panama Papers and that the PM is obviously on the back foot. Annette King attacking the Government’s record on surgery waiting lists whilst conveniently overlooking her method of cutting waiting lists was to just arbitrarily remove 30,000 people from the list.

    Rule 101: If criticising the Government always offer a solution or an alternative.

  • duve

    NZ must be unusual in that we have no credible right wing party. ACT is a one -seat wonder courtesy of National gifting them Epsom, the Conservatives are down the tubes, National could at a stretch be considered centrist but are in reality decidedly left of centre, and Labour and the Greens are hard left. Really, the only party slightly to the right is NZ First, who at least want to end separatism and get rid of Maori seats in Parliament and on local councils. Who is there for a right wing voter to support?

  • Eiselmann

    You know Labour might have actually picked up some votes from anyone who was that angry at John Key for this whole flag change process if they had done just one little thing…………ditch their own flag change policy ,which John Key used ,and Labour themselves describe as flawed.

    Labour really would do better if they hired Baldrick and followed one of his cunning plans.

    • Bartman

      I think we’ve found a useful and perhaps enduring meme for our fellow Little – a man of eternal turnip!

  • axeman

    So John Key could on these results easily have a majority with Act and Maori Party. But if I was him I would offer Winston an Olive branch and he’s in a dead cert for a 4th term. Winston in general is a center right politician and does not subscribe to the separatist policies pursued by the left and Maori Party. NZ First is again of size that he can’t ignore and would offer a much more stable Govt than what we have cobbled together at the moment. Jim Boldger did it, Helen Clark did it and so will John Key

    • Hardie Martin

      I follow Winstons Facebook page. It appeals to my sense of humour. Winston would halve his support if he indicated that he was going to align with National. He would lose at least 10 or 11 votes

      • axeman

        So no damage done then

  • Mine it,Drill it,Sell it.

    I never wanted MMP I hate MMP
    No one I have asked has ever admitted to voting for MMP.I believe what we are seeing in the poles and Labour and the Green’s do not is when we had first past the post it was cut and dried.

    The media could only feed of the two options.Now with the internet and social media at work 24 /7 every nutter and fruit loop who claims to be a MP or Media expert is cluttering the airways with rubbish and leaves 40% of the population in a permanent confused state.

    I don’t think it was planed as they are broke and dysfunctional but by Angry Andy pulling out of Northland allowed a first past the post election which was right up Winston’s skills set.

    When more people voted for the new flag option than would vote for Labour and the Greens today I think things are just fine and dandy.

    • Alan M

      I voted for mmp

      • Mine it,Drill it,Sell it.

        Twenty years,I finally found someone,Thank you for your honesty !!!

        • InnerCityDweller

          Two ;-)

        • Alan M

          At the time my mate asked what the hell I did that for… I said well if nothing else it’ll make it more entertaining… and I was right about that I think!

          • Mine it,Drill it,Sell it.

            That’s why we watch question time in the house online as it is the best entertainment ( circus ) during the day while we work.

          • So I’m glad you’re having such a hoot.
            I want to thank you for WFF, Interest Free Student Loans and the bottomless trough known as the Treaty of Waitangi Grievance farce, the sabotage of the RMA reforms, Maori Statutory Boards, Maori owning our fresh water (coming to a region near you)….blah blah blah.

            HAHAHAHA. Its hilarious.

          • Mine it,Drill it,Sell it.

            I rest my case your Honer !!!

      • LovetoTeach

        Me too

    • InnerCityDweller

      I did. Works a charm in Germany and the underlying weaknesses of FPP were the deciding reasons for me to do so. Little did we know that literally one-man parties would hijack the system and, on occasion, hold the country to ransom.

      • Mine it,Drill it,Sell it.

        Maybe with Germany voting numbers of approx 60 Million smooths over the sharp edges more than ours.

        • InnerCityDweller

          I’d say that’s part of it and also the fact that they had quite some time to get it sorted. Not sure what it was likely in the early days, may have been similar.

      • Little did you know you mean! I saw that coming a mile away and returned to NZ specifically to campaign against MMP for that reason.

        • InnerCityDweller

          Indeed, very little as it turns out. Oh well, happy to admit I voted for it and happy, sort of, to be proven wrong.

      • OneTrack

        We should have a Chancellor Merkel, queen of all she surveys?

    • OneTrack

      I voted for MMP and I was wrong again.

  • 10cents

    If I were Labour I would quickly announce their party as yet another national disaster. That should see the problem fixed in no time.

  • XCIA

    I candidly thought that by now, Robertson would have gone his own way with his supporters and formed a new Labour Party that appealed to the fruit loops who held the traditional left wing values near and dear.

  • CoNZervative

    Yes but Clayton Cosgrove is leaving: bad polls have some silver linings

  • Bartman

    Did anyone notice the bemused looks on Labour MP’s faces when the news cameras were in their meeting this morning? Talk about smug smirks and downcast eyes – half of them looked like they we’re having a joke at the RSA, not serious contenders for the government benches! And not a brave one in sight regarding a potential challenger for leader, happy to spin down towards election defeat and go cap-in-hand back to the union for their next anointed one. Cosgrove may be the start of a groundswell movement – out the door!

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