Little takes Labour to Cunliffe levels in latest poll

The left-wing are all cock-a-hoop about the latest Roy Morgan poll.

For the life of me I can’t understand why.

During April support for National fell 3.5% to 42.5% – the lowest for two years since April – May 2014, now only 2% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 1.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 12.5% (up 3.5% to their highest level of support in twenty years) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, up 0.5% to 1.5%, Act NZ was 1.5% (up 0.5%) – Act NZ’s highest level of support since late 2014 and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 26% (down 2%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3.5% to 12.5% – its highest level of support since the 1996 NZ Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Sure National fell, but so did Labour…by about as much.

So the left-wing are celebrating their major party falling further in the polls. Have they forgotten that in a General Election the major parties fall even further?

Labour supporters are so thirsty after a drought they now think cat piss is a good drink.

Here is what the poll really tells us:

  • National is still far more popular than any other party.
  • Winston Peters is hoovering up disaffected Labour and National supporters.
  • The Greens are hoovering up disaffected left-wingers.
  • Winston Peters will never support a government where the major partner is hovering around 25% or just one quarter of the voters.
  • Winston Peters will never support a government reliant on the Greens to get across the line.
  • At that level of support Labour risks losing some seats.
  • Andrew Little isn’t improving Labour’s chances, they are actually going in reverse.

John Key is about to take their housing policy from them, tax the bejesus out of foreign land speculators and steal whatever policies he can to stay in power. Andrew Little has such appalling negatives that Labour is actually no threat. Plus, I would put good money on Winston Peters laughing in Andrew Little’s face about any suggestion that a hodge-podge coalition with the Greens could seriously govern. Right now it is looking like ending up a third/a third/a third of any government involving Labour, NZ First and the Greens…and whilst three-legged stools are stable, governments with basically equal partners are not.

But you’ve got to love the left…their main party goes down in support, and in elections they sink lower, and they are celebrating.

I can’t wait until the next Roy Morgan that, a dollar to a knob of goat-poo says, will show a rebound for National and not much improvement for Labour.

 


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  • Kiwiracer

    Totally on the money, and maybe Winston in the mix after the next election might not be a bad option.

    • kayaker

      Winston is all mouth and no trousers.

      • Kiwiracer

        I know, but he’s a survivor, I like survivor’s. . . . . . . . .
        And he’d make it at least a little bit interesting, all a bit boring as it is at present.

        • Michelle

          Boring maybe, but stable which is far more important

  • Bruce S

    We should all be celebrating along with Labour too; as we all know by now, the only time things improve for Labour is when they declare a crisis. If they aren’t clever enough to recognize their precarious predicament, who are we to point it out?

  • duve

    Winston will never support Labour and the Greens, but neither will he form a coalition with National. If the election result next year is anything like this poll, NZ First will sit outside of government but with the balance of power, and create mayhem, offering support to any party which will help them pass their key policy planks.

    • Kiwiracer

      If that was the case, I think you’d have to go back to the polls and another election quickly

    • I’d put money on you being wrong.

      Winston wants power and sitting on the cross benches doesn’t deliver that. He also really dislikes John Key, so any deal where he gets to knife John Key will be a good one for him. How long do you think the National caucus will hold out saying no to a deal? About as long as it takes to hand back the keys to a BMW is my pick.

      • Bartman

        Agree – this is Winston’s last throw of the dice so he’ll be placated by a nice fat trough and title to finish off his service in style. Probably poison NZF in the process but then it always was Winston First!

      • Tom

        I am still not convinced National will need NZ First. Seems a lot are panicking a little early and labor fans are celebrating a little early.

      • sheppy

        What better way to go out for the old fool than exorcising his KDS and getting one last taste of the baubles of office. The fact that the result may well usher in an era of economic depression caused by a few terms of the left won’t bother him as he zimmers off into the sunset. Its not a great look but it will get him into the history books for knifing one of the most popular prime ministers ever.

    • cows4me

      Winnie would sale his grandmother to the devil for a whiff power.

    • kayaker

      The sly old fox Winnie wants power and the next election is his last chance to grab it. He would not want to go out having coalesced with Labour/Greens as his last gig – quell horreur! If, by chance, he holds the balance of power and goes with National, he will be wanting baubles (at the very least with a plum overseas posting in the pipe).

  • KGB

    I wish I had your confidence in WP.
    I believe he would sell his soul for 1 year as PM, and the left will accomodate.
    It will be so easy for them to throw the unpopular fool Little under the bus. Perhaps that’s what they are saving him for?
    It won’t work, it won’t be stable, but WP won’t care.
    I don’t trust WP at all. I hope I’m wrong.

  • shykiwibloke

    As if we needed more proof the Left are not good with numbers of any sort. While it is true National are the biggest party by far – I would point out they are larger than any other three parties combined. It would take a coalition of four or more to beat them.
    Also – RM and the quoted article seem strangely silent on leadership preferences.

    • rua kenana

      Arithmetic is important in politics. Could you check yours?
      The poll seems to show three parties (Lab, Gre, NZF) have a combined share of 53% which is well ahead of National’s 42.5%.
      National is only 2% ahead of Lab+Greens. Maybe I don’t like that either, but that’s how it is.

      • shykiwibloke

        My apologies. serves me right for speed reading.

      • Counting Winston in that lot? Mistake.

        Nats 42.5 plus NZF 12.5 = 54.5% which is a better number than 53%…which means more stability and only two parties instead of three.

        • rua kenana

          The arithmetic didn’t imply anything about Winston.
          It was only an arithmetical correction of the statement that
          “While it is true National are the biggest party by far – I would point out they are larger than any other three parties combined.”
          Surely Winston must be counted as one of any three other parties. If not, what is he counted as? The arithmetic in no sense either precludes or assumes his joining up with National.

  • shykiwibloke

    Well – look on the bright side. WP as PM of a grand left coalition would solve the housing crisis overnight! Air New Zealand’s revenues would be up also – but only in the outbound direction.

  • Bob Dazzler

    The great majority of the electorate will want stability and prosperity, accordingly they have a brief dalliance with Winston but go for stability and stop him being a King maker. The left wing will remain small noisey bitter, bit players

  • john Doe

    The problem here is can Winston last for another 18 months. He is starting to look very drawn.

    • rantykiwi

      He’ll make it – ethanol is a great preservative.

      • Not for the brain unfortunately.

      • Isopropyl alcohol works well too

    • Eiselmann

      Policy wise I’m more in line with New Zealand First than any other party , yet I won’t vote for them, not because of Winston but because of the utter muppets he has in that party,

      Sadly New Zealand First in Government means some of them will be in cabinet and have actual authority over others , I wouldn’t have faith in any of them to be in control of a door let alone taxpayer money.

  • Mrs_R

    National would be surprised to know whose support they are actually losing. When I hear what I did yesterday I am concerned for National and this country. I spoke with a man yesterday who one could say has been extremely successful financially. His son has followed in his dad’s footsteps in that he moves with the movers and shakers in NZ (and internationally). He sits on more boards than most could ever hope or even want to, he even chairs the odd one. These people are what you would expect to be solid National supporters. Not so yesterday, and that concerns me. The expression I heard yesterday was that it is time to start voting for who would be best for their children and grandchildren. While I can’t see any hardship in the future of their off-spring it would seem they aren’t so confident. They remember what was once good about NZ and believe that those opportunities and lifestyles are under threat from our current government unless changes in policy are made. What worries me is if these capable, forward thinking, and in my opinion intelligent people, are concerned about our country’s direction then perhaps we all should be. They are not so stupid as to believe we have a capable opposition, but they are smart enough to know which pony to back to send a strong message of change.

    • roblin

      Did they tell you which pony to back? And the reasoning?

      • Mrs_R

        There is only one viable party that will allow National to continue to govern, but with a leash.

        • PersonOfColor:WHITE

          Mrs R, if you can add anything to your comments I would REALLY like to hear it. What specifics do you know?

    • Graham Pilgrim

      I’m sorry Mrs R, but I am none the wiser after reading your post. Who are these people now supporting? Who would be best for their children and grandchildren? What opportunities and lifestyles are under threat from our current Government in particular? What changes in policy need to be made? In which direction should we be going? Which pony are they backing?

  • Ho Hum. Why would you trust a Roy Morgan poll, proven in past experience to be the least reliable of any?

  • Wheninrome

    So all of this assumes that Act will not get a seat, nor any other (maybe yet to be formed party if Dunne disappears) and that Act will not support National, they always seem to leave the natural coalition party out of the equations talked about.

  • twittertit

    NZF at their highest level of support in 20 years?

    I’d be hesitant about taking this poll as the truth….

  • Mick Ie

    If NZF went in with Labour /Greens they would have to be promising personal gain ie PM.
    As it currently stands, he could be the bride but the rest of his party wouldn’t even make bridesmaids or even wall flowers.
    Winnie despises the Greens and to my knowledge has very little in common (sorry about the pun – not intended), but could maybe work with labour (especially on immigration).
    If Labour and Greens continue to work together they will have the combined numbers to shut NZF down every time.
    They can use NZF to get themselves over the line, put him in as figure head and then completely ignore them.
    Winstone First is going to have to make two decisions: 1) Is he really prepared to throw his party under the bus? and 2) Who does he despise more: Greens or John Key?

    • kayaker

      Greens. They’ve got nothing he wants.

  • Tom

    Dont panic Captain Mannering; A few facts. national polled worse this time last election. The last Labour government had 41% and National 39% and there is 18 months , expect a few bribes, expect more good news and expect a few ambushes on Labour. Its politics after all and key is a master at that game!

  • earthyundertones

    The longer that the left, and labour in particular, continue with the policy of “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” the longer they will be in the wilderness. WP is a self serving, racist, muldoonist curmudgeon. He will wantonly lie, without realising that he is vulnerable to a simple Google search (Sale of Huka lodge to the Chinese?). The left would claim to run a mile from the like of Winston (although to be honest they have pulled all of these tricks themselves). They need to develop a consistent, positive aspirational message to win back the middle ground – and at the moment I have never seen them so far away from achieving this.

  • kiwiinamerica

    The Greens always under-perform in an actual election. In mid last parliament the RM poll had the Greens at 15% at one stage and near 12% in the campaign but they got 10%. Labour also usually mildly under-perform as well so nothing to crow about. For Winston it’s simple – play 3rd fiddle to Labour/Greens or pick his job in coalition with National.

  • RockinBob625

    Dear Winston. If you do get the baubles of power this time, do something to make NZ better. And I don’t mean $9million for Horse Racing stakes.

  • Oh Please

    If this shows disaffected National supporters are moving to NZF it suggests that Act has missed a trick. They need to stand strong on the right side of National, rather than creeping left.

  • Isherman

    Comparing the latest RM and CB polls, one has National up, one has it down but both polls have Labour down below 30%.
    Winston, ‘if’ he is in a position to do so will talk to the biggest party post election results, as he always points out, and National will probably swallow a dead rat if they have to on this occasion and placate NZF to the minimum required for a deal.
    The Greens big problem is that between them and Labour, a combined total of 30-35% is not beyond possibility, and if you have to rely on Winston, what’s the bet that he would veto any Ministerial positions for the Greens. Any way you look at it, you don’t end up with a credible or stable government in that case.
    Glad to see the left think this is good news though, after reading Wrongly thoughts on it all. I have a new formula based on Wrongly’s past predictions and confidence – when he’s happy,…I’m happy.

  • Left Right Out

    The thing with the left is they automatically count NZ as part of a coalition. Little constantly refers the Labour/Greens/NZF yet NZF constantly maintain they have no joint policy and will as always wait until after the election to take a side.

    Yet, Little still thinks its a done deal……. someone has it wrong…. i wonder who?

    • Doug

      Well it is a tough choice, Winston first wants the baubles of office, but detests John Key, but on the other hand he can’t stand the Greens… It could anyones guess where he jumps

      • BG

        Which continues to show how insane those who vote for him are. basically they’re saying ‘we’ll leave it up to Winnie to decide for us’. At least with ACT you know who’s side you’re backing. If you vote for Winnie, are you wanting Labour or National, make up your own mind!

    • WaveAtTheBridge

      Don’t rely on Winston doing the Right thing. It’s Winston First every time. If Labour offer him the PM role (and let’s face it with the Little man in charge what have they got to lose) Winston will be jumping at it like a rat up a drainpipe. The smell of the greens won’t come into it, he’ll just hold his nose!

      National would never offer Winston the top job under any circumstances but that might be his price. It would be Winston First and New Zealand second all the way.

  • Wayne Peter McIndoe

    Looking likely that John Key may have to start dealing with Winston if these trends continue – that could be very interesting

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