Poll carnage for Labour with latest Colmar Brunton poll


Labour and Andrew Little are in real trouble in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.

The popularity of John Key’s government is showing no sign of waning, with support for National climbing in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

However it’s a very different story for Labour, with the party and its leader Andrew Little taking a big hit this month.

National has climbed three points to 50 percent – a level it hasn’t been at since August 2014 – while Labour is down a whopping four points to 28 percent.

Crucially, this is the first time Labour has slipped below 30 percent since the election.  

After a dip last month the Greens have crept back up to 10 percent, just pipping New Zealand First who slipped back one to nine percent.

The Maori Party and Act are both steady on one percent.

When converted into seats in Parliament, it’s a clear cut win for National who get 61 seats and the ability to govern alone in a Parliament of 121.

Labour would have 34, and even with the Greens 12 seats could only muster 46 as a left wing block.

NZ First would have 11 seats while Act, United Future and the Maori Party all would have one.

The poll must be a huge relief for the Prime Minister with no apparent voter backlash from his failed $26 million flag change campaign, the holiday pay botch-ups and tax haven trust issues.

The Preferred Prime Minister stakes aren’t much better for Andrew Little, with him sliding well behind the real leader of the opposition, Winston Peters.

But there are plenty of challenges for Mr Little who after more than a year in the job is now going backwards.

While John Key has slipped one point in the preferred Prime Minister poll to 39 percent support, Winston Peters is a clear second on 10 percent while Mr Little languishes on seven percent.

Nothing Labour are doing is resonating positively and their tough talk over banks, their dopey Future of Work policy and a lacklustre performance from Andrew Little are hurting them.

This week we will also be releasing our INCITE/Curia favourability ratings in the April issue of INCITE: Politics. Will Andrew Little continue his climb towards a postive rating, or will last month’s numbers have been a’dead cat’ bounce? Subscribe now and you can find out soon.


– One News


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  • Cadwallader

    Some words: Inevitable, deserved, irreversible, cardigan, knife, back.

    • Alan Beresford B’Stard

      Knife, back, Robertson?

      • Whafe

        Robertson can only dream of getting to 30% should he be made NZ Labour’s leader. There really is no one in the NZ Labour party that even have the confidence to give being leader a go… Being NZ Labour is more temporary than a courtesy car at the panel beaters

        • Boondecker

          Raising the issue of the seemingly always leadership-lurking Robertson brings in three more all-important words, that can readily apply to just about every Labour MP (especially with the incumbent and indeed Robertson himself).

          Lack. Of. Charisma.

      • Aucky

        Robertson just hasn’t got what it takes to be leader. No charisma, poor public speaker and he is prone to losing his rag. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again but the bulk of NZ is not ready for Alf to be first lady and neither are many of the international leaders that a PM is called on to visit or to host. As a moral issue it doesn’t worry me but it will many of Labour’s core voters and Labour just cannot afford to lose any support.

        • Wayne Peter McIndoe

          Agreed Robertson is a career politician and that is not what New Zealanders want for a Prime Minister

  • Whafe

    No one is surprised except for NZ Labour….
    Very hard to execute a strategy when the strategy is circa 1940’s….

  • Geordie

    Andrew Little is clutching at straws saying that the Panama papers were released half way through the poll. People don’t care about overseas people setting up a trust here and then dodging tax in their own country. But they do sit up and take note when Labour and the Greens announce that they want the refugee quota doubled and give everyone $200 whether they need it and don’t explain how the govt is going to pay for it. People vote on domestic issues and Labour doesn’t get that!

    • Second time around

      Andy is hoping against hope that Nicky Hager’s word search and document scanning software will mine some Nat names from the Panama treasure trove. Unfortunately the names are just as likely to be of Labour benefactors.

      • sheppy

        Saint Nicky will only mention the right of centre names, it’s covered by his
        Shield of santamony

      • rangitoto

        People have been pouring over the panama stuff for months before it was released. I suspect the big stuff is already out. Looks like the main casualty is the Iceland PM, although Cameron is taking some unfair heat for his parents dealings. Mind you Cameron is a prat for campaigning against Brexit.

      • Bryan

        the interesting facts so far is the American names and Companies that are not there . The basic outline of names seems to be a lot middle eastern, southern American, sports folk, and eastern European leaders and govt, and probally a lot of the trusts are quite legal. it’s the area of what has gone into them and out where the interesting stuff could turn up.

        • Second time around

          The Pfizer “merger” to become an Irish company at a low tax rate was abandoned because of a change in (the interpretation of?) American tax law. The activity was illegal in the US, legal in Eire, the opposite of some other laws, but it was always open to scrutiny. People don’t fool with the US Feds, and similarly, only fools fool with the IRD here.

  • Isherman

    When your personal preferred PM rating is below Winstons, you’re not even in the race. The way this is headed, Little could break Cunliffes record margin of defeat..is that something you would really want to achieve?

  • Not Clinically Insane

    One thing I don’t get is the continued assumption that Dunne (and I guess Seymour) will win their seats ad infinitum

    • Boondecker

      Tend to agree with you yet they do do it, and time after time.

      They do both get an easy pass from National on each occasion, of course – one just has to look as to who wins the party vote in their electorates to see where people’s allegiances really lie.

      • Dog Breath

        I think they have done it based upon low probability I.e while there is a chance albeit slim, however when that probability becomes impossible then they will act.

    • Dog Breath

      They only exist on the chance they can coat tail others to bolster the coalition. If they cannot breach tbe threshold for coat tailing and are unlikely to do so expect national to move cutting them off at the knees.

    • Christie

      Yes. I think Dunne is done for.

  • R&BAvenger

    This is all so predictable. Labour are an amateur rabble and Cosgrove has already seen the light. A huge bloodbath is required, or a ‘New’ Labour to come out of the ashes of the old.

  • Korau

    I see John Key is taking steps today to minimise (or nullify) the effects of the Panama Papers.

    “Last week Mr Key rejected any suggestion New Zealand was a tax haven, saying New Zealand had “full disclosure of information.”

    But in an apparent backdown Mr Key told RNZ’s Morning Report he would take a proposal for a review to Cabinet today.

    “It’s highly likely, I think, that the government will ask an expert
    in this area to undertake an independent review – just for good order.

    “Of course there may well (be), outside even of that independent
    review, in terms of disclosure … it’s possible that there’ll be other
    learnings that come out of these papers.

    Mr Key said he was not ruling out tighter rules on foreign trusts.”

    Lesson 1 from “Yes Minister”. Appoint a Commission of Enquiry if you want to bury it!

    • R&BAvenger

      It’s a sensible move from Key. naturally it’s framed negatively as a ‘backdown’ but it’s belt and braces stuff really, with a dose of pragmatism and common sense.

      • Christie

        It is a sensible move. There has been talk for years about a centralised Trust register. That would probably solve most of the issues. It would apply to all trusts though – resident and foreign.

    • Second time around

      The “back down” is just another straw man argument. Key has never advocated for tax cheats and has always said that the IRD or someone could review how tax rules were applied. Given the OECD review next year, this was always on the cards. It is just business as usual, not the capitulation that Andy so desparately needs.

  • Dave

    What a great way to start the week, I shall have a smile all day. And please keep up the hard work criticising and being such a negative whinger Andy, with a little luck you can make 5% in another few months.

  • KGB

    Until they change the way they select their “Leader” nothing will change.

  • Crowgirl

    The worst bit is that they were more than likely coming from slightly inflated numbers (32%? Really?) to begin with, and that these numbers would noticeably soften further in an actual election. If an election was held today, the Labour/Greens bloc could plumb new depths in their vote. Cunliffe is starting to look competent!

    • Gravedodger

      Plus David Shearer is looking the closest to a leader since, well since H1 departed for her next step up.
      Agree until the Union bloc have their testicles placed in formalin jar and Labour attempt a move to a democratic socialist image nothing will change.
      Cloth caps and anti success from losers does not resonate for any but the ignorant yoof, to wit Sanders, Corbyn et al.

  • Mav E Rick

    Another reason I believe Labour is going down in the Polls, is because we are continually seeing left wing activists disrupting hard working people going about their normal business and the normal Kiwi is getting peed off with this. The clowns (literally) disrupting the road show meetings on the TPPA the Govt is running is a classic point. The left wanted to know what was in the agreement and when the Govt had public meetings to discuss the content, the activist left tried to shout it down. The left are also forgetting that at the moment the country is enjoying many positive economic trends (apart from diary which is hardly the Govts fault) and the negativity and dour comments from Little get a little tedious after a while. Being against everything without coming up with a better alternative is hardly going to make you popular.

    • David Moore

      This is the main reason IMO. Labour have simply become a protest organisation, not a political party. The takeover by activists is almost total now.

      • JustanObserver

        They are the political arm of their militant Unions, and unless compulsory unionism is re-enacted, Labour is highly unlikely to rise above the methane-fog hovering just above the swamp

  • Positan

    Surely it really just boils down to this. The average Kiwi wants competent government, and Labour with all its fumblings and foamings has demonstrated absolutely nothing to the electorate that would indicate it was even remotely possessed of such capability.

  • andrewo

    We don’t need opinion polls which are this bad. It might prompt change!
    We need Little Andy to limp into the next election as a lame duck and only get knifed afterward. Thus guaranteeing another centre right government.
    Next time around I’ve voting ACT again – Key has drifted too far left and needs an honest centre-right coalition partner.

    • kayaker

      JK’s ‘drift to the left’ is strategic and not permanent, IMO. Think Sun Tzu.

      • Aucky

        Absolutely correct Kayaker. JK has shifted the left of the party into the zone occupied by Labour’s ‘missing million’. Except they aren’t missing, the Nats found them two elections ago.

        All we need now is Seymour to get it together and build up Act representation to 4-7 seats and shore up the right wing.

      • Whitey

        JK’s drift to the left is definitely strategic and it pays off in the polls, and it’s probably for the best in that it keeps Labour out, but I still don’t think it’s healthy.

  • Keyser Soze

    Labour would do better if they said and did absolutely nothing!

  • cows4me

    I think it’s all a big conspiracy and Andy is under paid employ as an agent provocateur for the National Party and a mighty fine job he’s doing to. He’s the Judas goat, leading all of those with the mental disorder into the political wilderness.

    • WeaselKiss

      My first thought was ‘Oh oh, you’ve been talking to the cows again’ but then I decided you could be right.
      Not that this poll will stop them putting on the relentless front of optimism.
      Puts me in mind of the guy on TV least week: “We blunted the razor, our H & S people checked it more than once, then we wrapped it with duck tape and cellophane….’
      All very good mate but it STILL cut two people! !

  • kiwisnab

    Stephen Mills explained all on Nine to Noon – Labour’s poling is showing Labour at 30 and National at 43. Tell him he is dreaming!

  • Grizz30

    I would be cautious about this poll. It probably is at the upper end of the margin of error as far as National’s numbers are concerned. You need to look at the trend over a long period of time. While that is warmly favourable for National it is not a time to gloat and be complacent. It is probably not the time to kick Andrew Little with your hardest blows all at once. Let his own crowd do that. No one likes an arrogant winner.

    What worries me is that the mechanisms in Labour will look at another leadership challenge. Enough may see the light that you need a non-unionist with a backbone who appeals to the centre to lead the party. Take the lessons from National. The upper echelons of the party realise that they cannot be as extreme as they want to be and begrudgingly try to appeal more towards the centre. Forget the Gracindas and the union bully boys. Labour should take gamble and chuck a Nashy/Shearer ticket into the ring. What have they got to lose. At least less people dislike them that their current leaders.

  • Keanne Lawrence

    In line with the increasing voter awareness that domestic issues are of far more concern it is also worthy of mention from commenters.
    The latest distraction is the Panama Papers and now the Prime Minister is wisely seeking a review by a tax expert to confirm the system is robust and strong enough to prevent abuse. Not without significance is the fact that those complaining the loudest about this issue with shouts of tax haven are those who put in place the current statutes regarding such matters.
    The early bumper sticker policy announcements from Labour have faded already and may have in fact turned away more swing voters than those who swung their way. Angry Andy is taking one for the team who are also seeing opportunity leaving the door after nobody heard the knock. Cosgrove is unlikely to be the only departure as their career paths are strewn with fallen leaders as well as being trashed by party peripheral players. These wannabes are making it a Game of Drones with their constant whingeing only creating word fodder for the Media party.
    A 4 point drop has seen the downward trend accelerated making it even harder to slow and may not ease until it reaches the 2 swans.
    While Winston First’s star still shines bright as the blue hair brigade think he is a lovely man his party too has seen the bubble burst as more people do the sums. They are struggling to see anything in the vacuum behind him while seeing “the Winston of old” morphing into old Winston.
    The Greens have scratched their way out of single figures as they confirm the suspicion that the nut bar element number “about 10%”. It also illustrates that no matter how stupid some list MP’s can be there is a still a lace for them at the trough.

  • Wayne Peter McIndoe

    All Labour seems to offer is more welfare with increased taxes and thats not what the public want – Labour just are not getting the message

  • Bryan

    they seem to be trying through Megan Woods to stir up about earthquake repairs that were done 3 years ago and having cracks appear, while ignoring that we have had more quakes and also the city has slowly settled to the south, and there seems to be a lot of labour trolls pitching in on stuff tonight about the issue gee they are desperate

    • Second time around

      150000 repair jobs, done while the earth was still moving. Not all were perfect, and not were as good as Megan or Andy would do, but not a bad effort all the same.

  • Metricman

    Since it’s Chicken Little we are talking about, the issue is really one of poll Polloage, rather than carnage, considering its such a meaty issue, hahaha.