The delusions of the left

The left-wing is seeing hope in the Roy Morgan poll, despite Labour scoring their second lowest result since October 2014 when they polled 22.4%.

They are busily leaking internal poll results to bloggers like Martyn Bradbury who is treating Rob Salmond’s numbers as gospel. They are also leaking to unionists who are busily shilling details on Twitter.

williams tweet

The problem with these leaks is that I conduct my own polling via INCITE: Politics and Curia polling. The reason I use Curia is because they, and David Farrar, are simply the best pollsters in New Zealand.

Our poll results measuring favourability don’t show that at all. In fact they show that Andrew Little’s favourables are tanking and John Key’s rose a little.

Martyn Bradbury meanwhile is spinning up Labour’s own internal polling, which if they still used UMR might be believable, but since they stopped paying their bills anything coming from Labour is going to be rubbish. 

In one post he says:

The internal research shows that Key has been hit hard by the flag referendum, the ponytail hair pulling and the TPPA. Voters are turning away from Key in droves, but they don’t see an alternative. When asked if they could name a Labour Party policy, many couldn’t.

And in another post he again talks about Labour’s internal polling:

Looking at some internal Party Research this week, there was much that made for interesting reading.

The biggest take away is the manner in which Key’s favourability has collapsed. The research was taken before the Tax Haven scandal had erupted but for many NZers, the TPPA, ponytail pulling and the flag referendum have crossed thresholds where a lot more voters now see Key as arrogant and smug.

So why isn’t that jump in  dislike being reflected in polls? Because as much as NZers are now wary and disliking of Key, they see no real political alternative.

As I said earlier, our polling is not showing this, and in the absence of any real numbers from a reputable polling company I suggest this is utter bullshit from Bradbury and Labour. Media subscribe to INCITE: Politics, and that is why they aren’t buying the spin being shilled by Bradbury and Jessica Williams.

Quite simply they are being fed rubbish.

Another point worth considering is why Labour would even dream of sharing their poll numbers with Martyn Bradbury. He has a long, long history of being hostile to Labour and an even longer history of being wrong.

His prescription for Labour to turn around the polls is laughable:

This means Labour have to think of alternative means of communication. Old school town hall meetings and the launch of a new social contract would make that cut through.

Town hall meetings? More likely we will hear calls for Spark to reintroduce phone boxes so Andrew Little has venues he can fill to capacity.

The political retard is strong in Bradbury, he goes further:

What possible moves should Labour consider knowing this?

  • Labour need to launch a fresh policy platform – ‘The New Social Contract’ to tackle the issues Key simply claims aren’t issues and use this new policy platform to attract voters attention.
  • Bypass traditional media for a winter series of barnstorming town hall meetings using this new policy platform and live streamed around the country. Combining flaxroot localism with social media amplification. Labour can’t get through the impenetrable wall of mainstream media clickbait headlines, but they can generate their own media.
  • Remind voters again and again that tax haven building John Key is not ruling in the interests of the people, that he’s ruling in the interests of oil companies, casinos, alcohol industry, fast food industry, Corporate Hollywood, Oravida, property speculators, Washington, Beijing – this is what will convince NZers to change votes.

I’m really hoping that Labour has this muppet on the payroll, because none of that matters. Have you wondered why there hasn’t been a peep about the Panama Papers in the last week? Well, because there is nothing in it, despite the wailing of the left, there was simply nothing in it. So if Labour wants to listen to Martyn Bradbury, all power to them.

With the latest Roy Morgan poll Bill English will have a grin because he knows the major parties always slip and 20.9% isn’t that far off 26% is it? He might finally get that monkey off his back.

So, who are you going to believe? People with vested interests shilling poll numbers no one has seen or someone who pays for polling and analyses real numbers?

 

– The Daily Blog, Twitter

 


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  • Wheninrome

    It is a pity Labour’s finances are in such a bad way, otherwise they could buy an old phone box on Trademe for Little to hold his meetings in, it really is a sorry state of affairs for labour when even this avenue is closed to them.

    http://trademe.tmcdn.co.nz/photoserver/full/473166015.jpg

    • Keanne Lawrence

      At least it is on level.

    • SlightlyStrange

      Wait, that ones for sale? Awesome!

  • rantykiwi

    To paraphrase Groucho Marx, “These are the numbers, if we don’t like them we’ll just make some up”.

  • How did Martyn’s town hall meetings go for Dotcom?

    • Nebman

      The sad thing that he either does not understand or has not realised, is that we only do “old school town hall meetings” for things we actually care about. What they are ignoring is that there is no desire or even a nod towards changing the government beyond a vocal minority who immediately turn off swing voters with their antics and virulent anti John Key rhetoric and behavior.

      As it stands at the moment fully half of those that vote are not interested in change.

    • CheesyEarWax

      Maybe he’s thinking Moment of Truth 2.0?

      • I’m sure we’ve all missed the “@@@@ John Key” chants too.

    • Kevin

      About as good as his role as political strategist for the Internet Mana Party.

    • Keeping Stock

      He got a new phone and a new laptop to interview.

  • Davo42

    Are Labour suggesting that National have a polling crisis on their hands? – we all know how that goes.

  • Second time around

    The date on the Morgan poll is 17 April . Barry Soper was writing about the Panama issue back on 5 April. They are wrong, the scandal about Key’s lawyer sharing offices with a website in his retirement, and a qualified tax expert reviewing our foreign trusts was the big news at the time. That was why Winston was so high, and why they should be disappointed that Labour made so little impact. Opportunities like the Panama Papers don’t come that often for an opposition. Niue might boost Jacinda’s popularity but do nothing for Little.

  • Justme

    It isn’t a concern to me if Labour and Mr Bradbury are making these wonderful claims about their poll numbers. No one ever says they are going to lose a game. It upsets the supporters.
    What would concern me though, is if Labour and Mr Bradbury actually believed what they were saying was true.

  • R&BAvenger

    Another sample of their delusion, was the Screaming Skull’s ‘interview’ in last weekend’s Press. He thinks we are on the verge of a revolution of politics worldwide and that neoliberalism has run its course after 30 years. His evidence?
    The ‘rise’ and ‘popularity’ of new left-wing politicians, namely Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn.
    He also blamed pakeha voters for ‘not getting’ what Internet Mana was all about in the last election.
    Oh, we got it alright, hence the election result.

  • kayaker

    “Bypass traditional media for a winter series of barnstorming town hall meetings…” This will be a big ask – traditional Labour voters tend not to like going out in winter. They can’t even get out of bed to vote in Spring (especially if it’s a rainy day).

    • Big_Al

      They do, however, go out on dole day so perhaps labour should set up their meetings outside the WINZ offices.

      • kayaker

        Ssshhhh… don’t give away any intelligence. They would not have thought of that. Genius!

  • In Vino Veritas

    Aw jeez Whale, you’ve sprung me again. I knew I shouldn’t have done the bleeding Labour Party polling. Hmm, but those 3 lads at the Blackball boozer did give me some insights into Key. Along with the 9 people I got lined up for me by Sue Bradford.Though I did tell the Labour Party that the sample was a bit small and my margin of error was + or – 1276.3%. They just never listen these days.

  • redeye

    “Labour can’t get through the impenetrable wall of mainstream media clickbait headlines”

    I’m not so sure. They got through the impenetrable wall with their Nuigate debacle. Hilariously so. Labour would benefit considerably in the polls if they kept Little well out of the media.

  • cows4me

    “Labour needs to launch a fresh policy platform”, so you’re telling me the idiot suggestions coming out of Labour aren’t fresh ? You mos well admit defeat now.

  • Crowgirl

    The delusion is strong in Martyn Martin if he thinks the ponytail hit job is still hurting John Key more than a year on. More like he’s still trying to get some traction for it. Sir, that horse is dead.

    • Nige.

      The luvvies keep trying to bring it up. Allison mau tried to compare it to something unrelated the other day and right on cue one of her fans phoned in and tried to whip it up again.

      They really believe they can repeat and repeat until something becomes fact.

  • DangerMice

    “oil companies, casinos, alcohol industry, fast food industry, Corporate Hollywood, Oravida, property speculators, Washington, Beijing”

    Does he have a checklist of bogeyman words to include in each post?

    • Hard1

      Yes, your list nicely encompasses Bradbury’s activities. Lefty’s hate themselves for being oh so human.

  • JohnO

    ” The political retard is strong in Bradbury”
    Love it. especially when it is backed up by prescriptions for labour’s recovery proving the point such as “barnstorming town-hall meetings” and John Key’s “not ruling in the interests of the country”. Sounds like he admires Trump’s mass rally appeal and Kim Jong-un’s leadership style.

  • Isherman

    Jessica, do yourself a favour and get yourself a subscription to INCITE. It might not help with the ‘trained and skilled’ deficiency that you like so many other journo’s suffer from, but you might at least be a little better informed, so you don’t look so silly when your ‘rumours’ turn out to be worth as much as a Winston Peters promise.

  • Keep up the good work Martyn. Once again your services to proving the Dunning- Kruger effect are to be applauded.

  • Allan

    The Left are retards. The policies and dogma that they represent are total failures. History shows that, Socialism and its harsher form Communism do not and will never work. The failed states of Cuba and Venezuela are prime examples of the destruction that this type of thinking creates. They are all a bunch of losers who have no place in the halls of power as they would totally destroy this country with their totally discredited brand of governance.

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