Who do you believe on sea level rise?

?The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. ”

–Edgar R. Fiedler

“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge. ”

–Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet

In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would happen under specific conditions. The scientific method is built on testing statements that are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies.? A scientific theory which is contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected.

That?s true except in climate science.? Predictions of sea level rise caused by sea water expansion and ice melt have been made for over 40 years.? The first IPCC report in 1990 predicted that sea levels would rise by between 80 and 290 mm by 2030.? That?s 4.5 mm per year average (range 2.0 to 7.25mm)

In that time frame scientists in NZ say our sea level has risen 1.7 mm per year on average up till now and it took some never revealed massaging of the numbers to get it to that number.? It is a very imprecise calculation and given known biases toward exaggeration it may be lower.? In any event it?s a small fraction of what the IPCC said would happen.? It?s out by a factor of 2.5.

If you apply the rules of science you would ignore any further predictions from those sources as being contradicted by observation. ??

Globally the sea level continues to rise slowly following the end of the Little Ice Age.? In fact the rate is slowing from around 2.0mm per year to closer to 1.5mm although you would never know that given the headlines.

Just yesterday our Royal Society made some bold predictions:

?Climate change could swamp significant areas with even modest rises in sea levels?, a report by the prestigious Royal Society of New Zealand says.

Coming from New Zealand’s pre-eminent research body for science, the report confirms the severity of the local threat posed by climate change. Chair of the expert panel which wrote it, Professor James Renwick, said New Zealanders were particularly vulnerable.

Depending on how greenhouse gas emissions were managed, the sea would rise between 30 centimetres and 1.1 metres by 2100, it said.

For that to be true the rate or rise would have to go from an already exaggerated 1.7mm per year to nearly 14mm per year.? That is simply not credible given their earlier false predictions.

NZ has a particular interest in the Pacific Islands especially Tuvalu and Kiribati that are very low-lying.? Al Gore in 2006 had climate refugees flooding NZ from these islands.? So what is the truth? Here are the records that have been taken by the Australian Government since the early 1990?s.

Picture1 Picture2

Does that look like a problem?

Is it any wonder that ordinary Kiwis refuse to buy into the climate alarmism?

If past predictions have proved to be so wildly inaccurate why should we believe present ones?