Farrar provides some facts to counter the shrill headlines predicting John Key’s demise

The Media party have piled in on the latest Newshub poll suggesting that a small, less than the margin of error, drop in popularity of John Key is the beginning of the end of him.

They have ignored that Andrew Little is below Winston Peters in the same poll and he dropped even more than John Key.

Arts, lifestyle and travel blogger David Farrar takes time out from his hectic touring schedule to present some facts that seem to have escaped the commentators in the Media party.

The Newshub story says Key has plummeted as Preferred PM as he has dropped 1.5% in 6 months. This is of course not even statistically significant let alone a plummet of any kind.

I thought it would be useful to compare the Preferred PM ratings of May 2016, with May 2007 – the same point in Labour’s third term.

In May 2007 the PM was at 30% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the PM is at 37% Preferred PM.

In May 2007 the Opposition Leader was at 32% Preferred PM and in May 2016 the Opposition Leader is at 9% Preferred PM.

So Clark was trailing by 2% in May 2007, while in May 2016 Key leads Little by 28%.  

Also for those interested in May 2007, National in Opposition was 12% ahead of Labour in the polls. In May 2016 Labour in Opposition are 16% behind National in the polls.

Yet Newshub trumpet their poll as bad news for National!

The Media party continue to prove why it is that their trustworthiness ratings are lower than hookers and the politicians they report on.

It beggars belief that the Media party and the opposition cheerleaders seem to think that a man as deeply unpopular as leader could possibly become Prime Minister. Coupled with single figure preferred PM ratings Little also has worse net approval ratings than even Donald Trump.

You can have fun with statistics too.

John Key “plummets” in dropping 1.5% from 38.5% to 36.7% or a 4% slide in support.

Andrew Little didn’t plummet according to the headlines, instead he lost 14% of his support in a single poll. I should have thought a 14% loss of support versus a 4% loss of support was somewhat more concerning.

Is it too much to ask for the Media party to be a little bit more honest with their reporting.


– Kiwiblog


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  • Cadwallader

    The PM’s drop is within the margin of error. Little Angry is well within the margin of terror as he must believe he will likely disappear completely.
    Are Newshub repeaters actually illiterate or has their collective eyesight suffered from KDS to such an extent they are more or less blind?

  • Quinton Hogg

    Honesty in the media?
    This breathless reporting of the collapse in the PM’s approval rating and the dolphin business simply highlights how dishonest the media now are.
    And the man in the street will go meh!


    The situation for the luvvies on the left (which includes the Media Party) must be desperate……they are completely loosing the plot and any credibility left is going out of the window rapidly. It’s a sad bunch…

    • pisces8284

      I thought Rawdon Christie on Breakfast was going to lose it this morning. He had a few letters re the ‘housing crisis’ and he was just about foaming at the mouth.

  • shykiwibloke

    The msm situation is now about as funny as a drunk three year old. Sad, pathetic and time we held the parents to account. Who sits on the boards of these outfits that should have a little sunlight shone their way?

  • Dave

    The issue they have simply become Rumour traders, Whisper repeaters. Any gossip or innuendo is now published as news, no verification, just get it from someone “in the know” and its published. I stopped taking any notice of the MSM when they started giving Bryce Edwards any air time.

  • Seriously?

    It would be interesting to see a poll that asked people which one of Key or Little they would prefer to be PM. Just the two choices.

    That, in reality, is the choice voters face. That is what may influence their votes come election time.

  • Dave

    Dear ordinary garden variety Media repeaters of gossip, press releases and other trivia found In dark dinghy offices and fed a diet of complete BS. The issue of these dark offices, and not really getting the feel of what real people are actually saying and doing, checking the facts and the story, before digesting all the BS you are being fed, is you eventually end up as a Mushroom.

    Urban dictionary: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Mushroom%20Syndrome

    NB: Reading the link to Urban dictionary is well worth 2 minutes of your day.

  • Tom

    Would the headline”Key maintains his personal lead over Little” or “National polling the same as they won the last election with ” sell any papers?

    • Keeping Stock

      Tom – the media operates by the mantra “If it bleeds, it leads”. That’s why headlines will always take the most extreme view.

      • OneTrack

        And then the MSM media wonder why their business model is failing, and they double down.

  • zotaccore

    So when JK’s popularity goes up, what is that called? Success, joy or both. Little doesn’t know what it is to feel that because it hasn’t happened to him yet.

  • Glenn

    Key has 36.7%, Winnie 12.1%, Little 8.9%, that’s 56.7% of the poll, what happened to the other 43.3%? News hub should probably publish the full results.

    • Oh Please

      Richie McCaw probably got the rest.

      • Bartman

        He would get even more running on a National ticket. Like all successful sports people he knows the meaning of hard work and making success a personal objective. Labour are simply never going to appeal with their everyone deserves a free handout regardless of how they contributed to their predicament.

    • Left Right Out

      Thought the same thing last night Glenn… something isn’t adding up here

      • Platinum Fox

        Reid Research doesn’t yet have the results up, but judging from the results of previous polls most of the balance will be undecided. The likes of Cunliffe, Shearer, Clark, Goff, Ardern and Sharples all registered above zero in the previous Reid poll in November 2015.

  • Oh Please

    Growing up in the UK, you knew the media was biased and bought your newspaper accordingly. However, in NZ it seems all the media is biased in the same direction. Looks like years and years of champagne socialists infiltrating all levels of the media has paid off for them.

  • Graeme

    Interesting to view the questions asked in the poll.

    • earthyundertones

      They have another poll declaring that “58% of people think that the Panama Papers have damaged NZ internationally” so I guess that would also have been part of it. Explains the timing and the minor fall. Would expect that to correct now the Panama reveal has basically been shown for what it was.

      • Left Right Out

        except,,,, there was nothing in the papers and the story was basically dead 6hours after the papers were released…. yes I can see all the people overseas looking at us pointing the finger and going, oh no they are a bad little country…… when in reality, they are all going, wait what…. NZ got a mention

  • rua kenana

    Personally I just like good government.
    Anything/anyone promoting this is good in my book. I’ve got reservations about all of the NZ parties, but don’t see much purpose making strong predictions about the outcome of next year’s elections. The electorate will tell us that come the right time. All I’ll do is vote, and whether or not it’s for John Key, who’s my electorate MP, it won’t make a jot of difference to his 18,287 majority (over Greens, who were second ahead of Labour).
    It may be fun abusing poor old Andy Little, but he’s going nowhere anyway, and I’m happy enough to just let him go there.

  • earthyundertones

    The perils of perception index constantly rates NZ as the “Most Ignorant Western Country” based on our perception of truth/facts. You only need to read the slant of media such as Newshub to realise where this misinformation originates from.

  • meltingpot