Get ready for a “non-linear climate event”

A brief summary on the Climate debacle fraud so far

  • We have lots of unreliable data, that keeps being changed
  • This is plugged into climate models, that keep predicting doom
  • The real world readings, even after fiddling with them, don’t match the most conservative of climate models
  • There is an arbitrary 2 degree “dooms day scenario” for this century that has no basis in fact

It is with this in mind, I want to pull up this author’s last paragraph first.

I’m not a scientist, but 10 years ago I spent almost a year interviewing almost all the world’s leading climate scientists for a book I was writing. I learned that all our calculations for dealing with climate change could suddenly be swept aside by a non-linear event — and this could be it.

Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

Now I’ve set the scene, get ready for the next panic in the Climate Change Circus:  non-linear climate change.

Most people think of global warming as an incremental thing. It may be inexorable, but it’s also predictable. Alas, most people are wrong. The climate is a very complex system, and complex systems can change in non-linear ways.

In other words, you cannot count on the average global temperature rising steadily, but slowly, as we pump more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It may do that — but there may also be a sudden jump in the average global temperature that lands you in a world of hurt. That may be happening now.

“We are moving into uncharted territory with frightening speed,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, last November. He was referring to the fact that the warming is now accelerating in an unprecedented way.

2014 was the hottest year ever — until 2015 beat it by a wide margin. 2016 may beat that record by an even wider margin. It was the hottest January ever — and then the average global temperature in February was a full fifth of a degree Celsius higher than January.

That was a huge jump, since the “average global temperature” is an average of all the temperatures over the seas and the land in both the summer hemisphere and the winter hemisphere. It is normally a very stable figure, changing no more than a few hundredths of a degree from year to year.

I love how they contradict themselves.  How can it normally be a very stable figure when they have been telling us for decades that it has been increasing at an alarming rate?   I’m also just a journalist, and not a scientist, but come on now, you can’t have it both ways.

But now the panic is that it will all turn to pot at an accelerated rate.

But March was not only hotter than February. It was hotter by an even wider margin than February was over January. Indeed, each of the past 11 months has beaten the highest previously recorded average temperature for that month.

Some people try to explain this all away by blaming it on El Niño, a periodical rise in the ocean surface temperature in the eastern Pacific that moves the rainfall patterns around worldwide, causing droughts here and floods there. But El Niño is a LOCAL rise in temperature, it does not normally affect the average global temperature much.

Much.  And local?  Seriously?  Doesn’t local data not get added to calculate global data?  There isn’t such a thing as global data.  Only local data rolled up.

As for the frightening acceleration in the warming in the past three months, that has no precedent in any El Niño year, or indeed in any previous year. It could be some random short-term fluctuation in average global temperature, but coming on top of the record warming of 2014 and 2015 it feels a lot more like part of a trend.

Could be.

But it “feels” like a trend.

F*** science, such as it is, we have a journalist who last talked to scientists ten years ago who says it “feels” like something.

Could this be non-linear change, an abrupt and irreversible change in the climate? Yes. And if it is, how far will it go before it stabilizes again at some higher average global temperature? Nobody knows.

Last year the average global temperature reached one full degree Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average. That is halfway to the plus-two degree level which all the world’s governments have agreed we must never exceed, but at least we got to plus-one slowly, over a period of two centuries.

The plus-two threshold matters because at that point the warming we have already caused will trigger natural feedbacks that we cannot control: the loss of the Arctic sea-ice, the melting of the permafrost, and immense releases of carbon dioxide from the warming oceans. After plus-two, we will no longer be able to stop the warming by ending our own greenhouse gas emissions.

Amazing, that they are looking at fluctuations on a monthly basis and then extrapolate that.  If you have a look at the 1960s, as the world’s industries were absolutely going gangbusters after the world war, we were in a “mini Ice Age”.  When temperatures started to rise then, they did by amounts more significant than “February” or “March”.

All of this is still assuming that a warming planet is a bad thing.  Who decided that?  Research shows that a warmer New Zealand, by a degree or two, would be a more prosperous country for it, and the change of the high tide line won’t change anything but the height of sea walls, causeways and where new properties are going to be consented.

Anyone checked out  Queensland lately?  How are they coping with temperatures higher than what is predicted for New Zealand for the next 200 years?  Surely their world must be falling apart?  Their economy in tatters?  People leaving in droves for colder and safer places to live?

But yes, they are figuring out that the public are no longer scared of climate change.  The public has come to accept it as inevitable.  So now we need to dial up the fear with “non-linear” climate change.  Where in the space of 10 years, New Zealand’s climate will be the same as it is in Indonesia today.   And boy, isn’t Indonesia failing because of it!  The people there have been dying, businesses failing, crops dying, all because of that extreme warm weather.

What exactly are we afraid of?  That we lose a little beach frontage and the weather is a little warmer.

And then what?

Good news is, if this guy is right, it could be happening soon.



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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.