Key “plummets” says Newshub…really? Since when has 1.8% been a plummet?

Newshub are pushing out their latest poll:

National though is steady on 47 percent on the poll — a drop of just 0.3 percent — and similar to the Election night result.


However, National and its support partners would not be able to put together a government — they would need the support of Winston Peters.

Mr Peters would once again be Kingmaker — if he sided with Labour and the Greens, they would become the Government.

But apparently John Key is in dreadful trouble…his support “plummets” (yes they really did use that word):

John Key’s popularity as Prime Minister has dropped to its lowest point since he took office in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.

Just 36.7 percent of those polled listed the current Prime Minister as their preferred option — down 1.6 percent — from a Newshub poll in November.


The preferred Prime Minister poll is not good news for Andrew Little either, he received his lowest ranking since he became leader with just 8.9 percent choosing him as their preferred Prime Minister — down 1.5 percent.

But coming through the middle and picking up most of those turning away from the leaders of the two biggest parties, Winston Peters — 12.1 percent want him in the top job — up 2.8 percent since the last poll.

The Prime Minister’s drop in popularity continues a downward slide — in January last year he received 44 percent, by May he was down to 39.4 percent, in July that slipped to 38.3 percent.

September saw him briefly creep back up to 39.5 percent but by November the slip continued to 38.3 percent.

As for the Labour leader his current rating is the first time he’s hit single digits since January last year.

So, the headline is John Key’s support has plummeted despite his number dropping less than half of the margin of error. They ignore the fact that Winston Peters has 50% more support than Andrew little in the Preferred PM stakes and ignore that the numbers are pretty much unchanged despite all the full on attacks since November last year which included the Panama Papers.

This poll and its presentation by Newshub say more about their political leanings than it does about the state of the political parties.

One thing that’s clear is that this is the second poll that has drastically different numbers than those being touted by the Labour party from their internal polling. Either the public polls are lying, and that’s not likely or Labour are lying to media and to themselves about their internal polling.

In no public poll is Labour even remotely near 32% or National remotely near 41%. This poll is the closest for Labour, and way off the mark for National. Who ever is polling for Labour these days is not being helpful by delivering up poop results.

Newshub’s inherent bias and political dishonesty is exposed for all though.




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  • shykiwibloke

    If 1.8% is a plummet – I wonder what hyped up terms they use to describe their decline in popularity as a news source year on year?

    • Uncle Bully

      Nosedive I think is the term. When one knowingly and deliberately accelerates towards the bottom rather than inadvertently falling. Labour, Newshub and the Herald are all trying really hard with their nosediving.

  • Left Right Out

    Actually it’s Angry that has plummeted. His drop is 1.5% from 10.4 to 8.9…. statistically this is a far bigger drop than JK Dropping 1.6% to 36.7…….

    This poll seems quite out of whack with the roy morgan poll and the one on incite…. but again… if this is all the left and media party can muster after the Panama hit…..

    • shykiwibloke

      With the margin of error above 3% angry could be down to his Y-fronts on 5.9%

      • Platinum Fox

        Unfortunately not. The margin of error in a result around 10% is under 2%. The 3.1% margin of error applies only to a result near 50% and declines to about 2.5% for a 20% result.

  • Sally

    The graphic and the words don’t line up. Is it a drop or a rise for National of .3%? Newshub were so keen to get the bad news out they didn’t bother to fact check.

  • Doug

    Good old media, by declaring Key has plummeted they hope to convince undecided that it is not worth voting for Key… stick to writing the news, not creating it

  • geoff2112

    I was driving when I heard this. When I finally heard the % drop…..I just about drove off the road….

  • shykiwibloke

    Looking at this again – all of the headline changes are well within margin of error. So no change. Nothing to see here – move along please. Do these numpties know anything about math?

  • Wayne Peter McIndoe

    The party vote says it all National steady on 47%, it is patently obvious that Little is just not connecting with “middle” new zealand

    • sheppy

      Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the electorate suddenly realised that despite being on 47% National could be kept away from Government on the whim of Winston, and they swing massively behind National. That would release the cat amongst the pigeons. Mr 8.9% can go way lower….

      • Miss McGerkinshaw

        I’m hoping! Let the MSM keep talking about him as ‘Kingmaker’ and realise that a vote for him is not simply a ‘protest’ vote (or whyever anyone thinks to vote for him) but possibly a game changer – for the worse!

        • Michelle

          l know one person who votes for him just because he brought in the gold card, no other reason

      • OneTrack

        Something I have never quite been able to understand, is that we have National on 47%, but consistently 60% say the country is going in the right direction. 13% are going to get a hell of a surprise if Labour gets in, and suddenly we aren’t going in the right direction any more. The disconnect is amazing.

      • Wayne Peter McIndoe

        True but thats MMP, I suspect Winston will go with National though, I cannot see him working with both Labour and the Greens no way

        • Winston can count. And two parties getting across the line is better than three.

          • axeman

            God I hope so

  • Jp

    Next thing we need is an authorization statement by NewsHub

  • Crowgirl

    It is noted that this poll is of course reported instantly on the front page of the Herald, with Key’s “plummeting” popularity being the headline, and Little’s almost exact “plummet” merely an afterthought. They’re not even trying to hide the bias now.

  • OneTrack

    It’s just their wishful thinking, getting ahead of itself.

  • Tiger

    I guess that the NewsHub crowd just cannot bring themselves to admitting openly they are a “left wing” MSM (mouthpiece) as they would have to then admit that WOBH is the “right wing” MSM! Therefore potentially splitting advertising revenues. They just go on pretending they are the MSM for all and thence lay claim to the bulk of mass advertising. I suppose the WO crew are just waiting for Harcourts / Barfoot to call to place ads?

  • Miss Phit

    So whats the margin of error for this poll?

    Im going to go out on a limb and say it will be around 2-3%, which means Key may have gone up slightly (or dropped more as well), but if its within the margin of error then its irrelevant.

    Im guessing the stats were massaged to give their desired outcome.

  • Bryan

    the fact that both are down really shows it’s middle of winter, middle of election cycle and people are actually getting sick of media trying to make something out of nothing so showing their low interest in politics in general. Winston has been doing his usual “any publicity is good publicity” and Key has been out of the country to rejoice with his daughter and good on him,

  • axeman

    All this and really not much of a change, and National haven’t really fired a shot yet.
    They haven’t got stuck into the opposition for all their stupid barking at cars and haven’t actually taken them to task. What will the polls do when they actually fire a few shots. My guess is that they don’t want to kill Labour just yet but want to do it in the election and take both Angry and Labour out