So Labour, tell us again what your internal polling is showing

Labour MPs are being lied to by Andrew Little’s dream team. They keep telling them that National is on 41% and Labour is on 32% in their internal?polling. They also claim that John Key’s net approvals are falling.

There is a massive problem with both of those propositions. Our own exclusive polling for INCITE: Politics shows Andrew Little’s net approvals are deeply negative while John Key’s net approvals are positive.

Secondly, public polls keep coming out showing a massive difference between Labour’s whispering campaign to talk up their own polling.

The latest being the Roy Morgan poll.

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First?s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour?s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

That is quite some distance from Labour’s own internal claims. Worse still Labour is no longer using UMR because they can’t afford them, suggesting that they are using amateurs and massaging results.

Worse still is the confidence poll:

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 130pts (up 3pts) in May with 59% (up 1.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ?heading in the right direction? compared to 29% (down 1.5%) that say NZ is ?heading in the wrong direction?. New Zealand Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia ? Australian Government Confidence is 102pts in May.

That gives a net positive rating of +30%. No government changes hands with a net positive rating of +30%.

With all public polls contradicting Labour’s own polling, and our INCITE|Curia poll showing something different I think I am on very safe ground saying Labour are lying to themselves and to media about their internal polling.


– RoyMorgan