So Labour, tell us again what your internal polling is showing

Labour MPs are being lied to by Andrew Little’s dream team. They keep telling them that National is on 41% and Labour is on 32% in their internal polling. They also claim that John Key’s net approvals are falling.

There is a massive problem with both of those propositions. Our own exclusive polling for INCITE: Politics shows Andrew Little’s net approvals are deeply negative while John Key’s net approvals are positive.

Secondly, public polls keep coming out showing a massive difference between Labour’s whispering campaign to talk up their own polling.

The latest being the Roy Morgan poll.

During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

That is quite some distance from Labour’s own internal claims. Worse still Labour is no longer using UMR because they can’t afford them, suggesting that they are using amateurs and massaging results.

Worse still is the confidence poll:

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 130pts (up 3pts) in May with 59% (up 1.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29% (down 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. New Zealand Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 102pts in May.

That gives a net positive rating of +30%. No government changes hands with a net positive rating of +30%.

With all public polls contradicting Labour’s own polling, and our INCITE|Curia poll showing something different I think I am on very safe ground saying Labour are lying to themselves and to media about their internal polling.

 

– RoyMorgan

 


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  • Uncle Bully

    Presumably this poll captures any voter perceptions arising from the Panama Papers. What does that tell us about Labour’s efforts to discredit the gov’t?

    http://www.brainyquote.com/photos/a/alberteinstein133991.jpg

    • Aucky

      And what does it tell us about the Greens and NZFP’s efforts to discredit the government?

      • Whitey

        Nothing we didn’t already know.

    • Melissa

      I’m actually amazed that Labour are at 29.5% and have gone up in the polls! What’s wrong with people?

      • johnandali

        The media never say a good thing about what the Government is doing. They only criticise, and they never show any other views. I think it’s the old adage. If you criticise a good government every single day, and never say anything good about it, the criticism will eventually rub off, and people will start to believe it. We have a brilliantly corrupt media.

  • Christie

    I know a few local Labour insiders, and they seem resigned to losing the lext election already. They recognise that Andrew Little is a terrible leader, but they don’t seem willing or able to do anything about it until after the next election loss. Only then will heads start to roll.

    • Positan

      Labour’s time as a once-effective political force is ended. The reason? Too many self-serving trough-feeders whose collective economic understanding and combined “performance” renders nothing even remotely close to public expectations.

      Next election, Labour will lose its (dubiously) long-held standing as parliament’s second party.

  • Big_Al

    I think what Little Angry means is that 32 people posed for “selfies” with him, so therefore they are polling at 32% I guess that’s how his brain has analyzed the situation.
    Now, if Robbo could go out and get another 32 “selfies” and they added them together, then they would be polling at 64% Right!! (WRONG)

  • Tom

    Coming from way left of field. Could Brian Gould be Labours next leader?

    • Oh Please

      That smug git was one of the reasons I left the UK.

    • Doc45

      Nah. He is only capable of pointing out problems – he never has a solution.

    • zotaccore

      Possibly. Labour is very good at picking nutty leaders. Gould fits in as one of the great whingers of politics both here and in the UK. He fits right into the loonie left political mantra.

  • DLNZ

    Labour polling seems to consists of 50/50 or phone a friend judging by those numbers…

40%