More on Labour’s List Problems

As David Farrar pointed out yesterday, Labour may end up with fewer List MPs following the 2017 election. This means they could lose the highly rated Jacinda Ardern & David Parker, and Little may not make it back in either.

Looking at some of the seats that Labour may win in 2017 there are a fair number that are in play.

Auckland Central – Nikki Kaye has a 600 majority over Jacinda, and Jacinda will be fighting for her political life while Nikki has a safe list seat

Maungakiekie – Sam Lotu-Iiga has a majority of 2348 when he was running against one of the biggest voter repellents in Labour, Carol Beaumont.

Waiariki – Flavell is vulnerable due to his unpopular Maori land reforms.  

Tukituki – Nikki Kaye and Hekia Parata have shafted Craig Foss and ensured Tukituki will go to Labour by wanting to build a Kura in the heart of National voting area a long, long way from where any Maori live

Whanganui – After shafting Chester Borrows in the cabinet reshuffle no-one would be surprised if Chester retires. His majority of 4505 benefits from a pro Chester vote

Ohariu – Peter Dunne running again opens up Ohariu to Labour’s very capable Ginny Andersen

Christchurch Central – Nicky Wagner ran a brilliant campaign to win a very red seat off Labour in 2011 and expanded her majority against the drip Labour put forward in 2014. She will be under extreme pressure from the well liked and competent Duncan Webb, a Labour moderate with a high profile from doing the Lord’s work fighting EQC.

If Labour pick up just a few of those seat then their List intake will be non-existent.

 


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  • Wheninrome

    If you were playing poker this is a very tricky hand for labour, Which card do they discard to ensure Little gets in on the List?

  • Dave

    So if Labour are smart they will do several things to improve their chances. 1). Move Angry to a pro left / Union dominated blue collar area such as Dunedin or South Auckland, but the incumbents might object. 2). Move Angry Andy up the list followed by Adern and wait for the fallout, and. 3). Build some funds up as they will need a huge war chest for a campaign, oh wait, if they have any wealthy supporters to shoulder tap, their success to date means they might not have any funds left to campaign with. Given its just over 15 months away, their options are not great.

    • GoingRight

      re no 2) I thought the leader of any party was always no 1 on the list.

      • Dave

        Sorry, I believe you are correct, Angry was a lot lower as he was not leader last election.

        • Poppa

          But the point is if their overall % drops too low, but they pick up a few electorate seats, they may not have any list places at all.

    • adam

      putting Angry in any of the Dunedin electorates should remove him from politics, with Curran in the Dunedin South electorate she has taken what used to be a seat with one of the highest labour majorities (over 14,000 ahead of the next candidate) to last time up against a first time young National candidate who narrowed that to around 3000. Curran is so out of touch it could be only a good thing for her to go. They also lost the party vote to National in both the North and South electorates.

      • biscuit barrel

        Electorates boundaries were heavily redrawn last election. So they arent totally comparable with previous election. The larger provincial towns and even Dunedin which arent growing as fast have had a lot of rural areas added, these are often lifestyle blocks and very heavily favourable to national.
        You would have to look at booths to see what the changes really are, and take out those booths that have changed electorates.

  • Blue

    Who are they going to put in the Mt Roskill seat?

  • Jtbnz

    Or, if they are polling all ahead, do National throw a couple of seats at the last minute so no labour list MP’s get in?

    • Annoyed

      This is dangerous because it may mean that Labour could theoretically get an overhang. Basically meaning that they have more seats than their percentage should give them. This could throw the balance of power towards the Left (more likely Winston).

      • Jtbnz

        Ah I had forgotten about the possibility of an overhang.

      • biscuit barrel

        That would correct the current overhang that nationals support partners enjoy, eg Dunne and Seymour equal 2 seats ie 0.22% + 0.69%=0.91 %., when you need 1.3% to get two seats.
        Labour in government had much the same overhang at times with Andertons party

  • axeman

    Yep Foss has been thrown under a bus and to reverse this some serious support for him will need to be shown in material terms for the his region in the up coming months. The only other thing that might save him is the alternative is simply not up to it.

  • Woody

    So if Jacinda is the best bet after Angry, heaven help them.

  • localnews

    They may lose some though. I can’t see Ruth Dyson winning again, she hasn’t said boo this term

    • JeffW2

      There may be more Labour victories if more of them, especially Angry Andy, didn’t say boo.

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