More on Labour’s List Problems

As David Farrar pointed out yesterday, Labour may end up with fewer List MPs following the 2017 election. This means they could lose the highly rated Jacinda Ardern & David Parker, and Little may not make it back in either.

Looking at some of the seats that Labour may win in 2017 there are a fair number that are in play.

Auckland Central?-?Nikki Kaye has a 600 majority over Jacinda, and Jacinda will be fighting for her political life while Nikki has a safe list seat

Maungakiekie?-?Sam Lotu-Iiga has a majority of 2348 when he was running against one of the biggest voter repellents in Labour, Carol Beaumont.

Waiariki -?Flavell is vulnerable due to his unpopular Maori land reforms. ?

Tukituki?-?Nikki Kaye and Hekia Parata have shafted Craig Foss and ensured Tukituki will go to Labour by wanting to build a Kura in the heart of National voting area a long, long way from where any Maori live

Whanganui?-?After shafting Chester Borrows in the cabinet reshuffle no-one would be surprised if Chester retires. His majority of 4505 benefits from a pro Chester vote

Ohariu?-?Peter Dunne running again opens up Ohariu to Labour?s very capable Ginny Andersen

Christchurch Central?-?Nicky Wagner ran a brilliant campaign to win a very red seat off Labour in 2011 and expanded her majority against the drip Labour put forward in 2014. She will be under extreme pressure from the well liked and competent Duncan Webb, a Labour moderate with a high profile from doing the Lord?s work fighting EQC.

If Labour pick up just a few of those seat then their List intake will be non-existent.

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