Latest poll shows a NZ First/National government could govern easily

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The latest One News/Colmar Brunton Poll is out and the status quo remains.

There are some small margin of error movements but essentially National is still riding high after 8 and a half years in government.

  • National 48% (down from 50)
  • Labour 29% (up from 28)
  • Greens 12% (up from 10)
  • NZ First 9%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Conservative Party 1%

That Conservative party number will collapse to nothing in coming months when the truth start coming out about Colin Craig.  

Labour remains mired under 30% and their leader is still on 7%. There is no way voters will accept a cobbled together coalition lead by a man on 7% and his party struggling to convince just a bit of a quarter of voters that they are credible. Winston Peters moves up to 12% into second place well ahead of Andrew Little’s meagre 7%. Winston Peters is clearly the real leader of the opposition.

TVNZ claims these margin of error movements are a poll boost for Labour and the Greens, which shows their inherent dishonesty. The poll was taken between the 28th of May and 2nd of June meaning it captured both the Budget and the new Memorandum of Understanding announced between Labour and the Greens last week.

So you can’t take anything from this poll…either negative or positive. It really is margin of error stuff, but it does show that voters didn’t really believe in the game changer title of the MOU. Game changers show massive movements, like Don Brash’s Orewa speech, which has been the only real game changer in recent history.

Their analysis of seats is ridiculous.

National would have 58 seats but in a Parliament of 122 would fall just short of being able to form a government, even with the support of its existing support partners ACT, United Future and the Maori Party, who all only get one seat.

It would on these numbers most likely need to rely on New Zealand First, which has 11 seats.

Labour meanwhile would have 35 and with the Greens 15 would muster 50.

But even with New Zealand First on board they would be one short of the 62 seats needed to form a government, creating the possibility of a
hung Parliament.

Obviously their reporters can’t count. National plus NZ First easily has enough to govern and two parties in government is better than, falling short with three. Game over. Winston wins, and so does National. 58 +11 = 69 seats, more than enough to govern.

It would be better for the electorate too, because Peter Dunne becomes irrelevant, as does David Seymour and the Maori party can no longer brown-mail the government.

 

-TVNZ

 


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  • Second time around

    Turei draws 0.9% as preferred PM, Shaw 0.4% but 12% of voters are Green. Clearly Green supporters do not see their own party’s leaders as PM material. After the MOU they have a clear choice, Andrew Little, who will lead a Labour Green coalition. If the MOU was a game changer we would expect Andrew’s PM rating surge to 10% and higher as he sucks in the Green voters who do not support their own leaders. Instead he is still stuck on an unelected and unelectable 7%.

  • KatherineS42

    Was there collusion between Labour/Greens and TV1 that saw Colmar Brunton organising a poll with a higher number of participants than usual so they could measure responses immediarely before and after the MoU announcement?
    If it was not prearranged how fortuitous that Colmar Brunton should vary its normal sample size at the very time it could make a pre and post-announcement analysis.
    Sadly for Labour/Greens, the troika with NZ First fared worse post announcement than before and National fared better.

    • biscuit barrel

      It was because greens conference was the next week.
      sample size was 1011 which is usual.

  • Korau

    Winston Peters, for his faults, isn’t keen on handing dollars to ethnic groups just for being ethnic groups. On this alone he’s head and shoulders above the rest.

  • shykiwibloke

    So taking a leaf from the surgery food marketing types – NZ politics is 93% Labour leader free.

  • Sailor Sam

    The problem as always is Winston and his shilly shallying.
    What National need to do is start working on a decent candidate for Ohuria, whether ACT or National and boost its own party votes throughout the country.
    It seemingly needs only 3 more MPs to govern alone.
    Roll out some mainstream green initiatives and then just ask James Shaw to come into co-alition, provided the Greens dump the Material Girl.
    It is time for John Key to play hard ball with the smaller parties.

    • ex-JAFA

      There’s zero benefit to National in winning Ohariu. Or any other individual electorate. All doing so would do is reduce the number of list MPs it’d have.

      Far better for a smaller party which would support a National government to win another electorate seat. Even if the winner’s party vote is still small, it forces an overhang in their coalition’s favour.

      • jaundiced

        The benefit is not having to humour useless, self important fluff

  • shykiwibloke

    Perhaps another headline MSM could consider would be “NZ First, Greens & Undecideds Larger than Labour, Could form Official Opposition

  • Greg M

    A concern is, if Winston Peters decides to play the fool again the next government could be decided by the overhang.

  • sandalwood789

    It’ll be interesting to see if the Seniors Party gets off the ground.
    There’s definitely room on the right for a party that has a “less welfare, fewer refugees” policy (among other things).
    It’d be good if they took a stand against Islam too (but maybe that might be asking too much).

    • ex-JAFA

      Isn’t the Seniors Party specifically about INCREASING welfare?

    • Boondecker

      I always though Winston First was the seniors party. On the other hand, I wonder if the reason they are to be / have been established is because they know Winston himself is short on time and that once he goes there’s no substance left in his party?

    • Rob

      Surely they will only take votes from NZF?

      • biscuit barrel

        yes thats why its likely to be a puppet glove party, designed to reduce NZF vote. Now who would want to do that ? They wont get into parliament but 2% would be a nice wasted vote for another party

  • Seriously?

    7% When his party polls 29%

    That means that at least 76% of his own party’s supporters would rather someone else be PM, probably more that that.

    When push comes to election shove that number is a real problem for Labour, and not a number for which there is an easy fix.

  • Keeping Stock

    The TVNZ report last night added this, almost as an afterthought – L:abour+Greens+Winston = 61 seats, which is not a majority in what they predict will be a 122 seat Parliament. Going with Labour and the Greens will not get Winston the baubles of office he so cherishes, whilst denying he cherishes them.

  • Positan

    Realistically, a government with Peters isn’t a government. It’d be a seat-holding political convenience for National and NZ First’s seat-warmers, which would be disastrous for New Zealand. Worse, it would undeservedly boost the presently all-but-extinct political prospects of Labour – just as Bolger and Peters did for Clark in 1998.

    When, oh when will we act to scrap the utter absurdity that is MMP and return to the far more representative reality of FPP?

    • contractor

      A Peters + L + G govt would be even worse, but never mind that is highly unlikely.

      Peters & Nats would relegate Labour even lower in support because they will be seen in the league of the Greens and other minor parties by effectively tossing the towel in on being a “broad church” party. Nice one, because this might just reduce the minor party impact of MMP.

    • Miss McGerkinshaw

      Not sure if I agree that FPP delivered a more representative reality but I do think it provided better / more clarity of government.

      • Positan

        It delivered “representative reality” because every electorate chose its own MP. Thus every MP maintained a fairly encompassing knowledge of all the parts of his/her electorate, especially how they’d benefit or be affected by proposed or changed legislation. List MPs owe nothing to anyone or anything other than their parties, which is neither “representative” nor inculcating of good government.

        • Miss McGerkinshaw

          OK put that way I totally agree, but percentage wise it didn’t always stack up.
          It is one of the things that totally irritates me about MMP, if your supposed ‘representative’ isn’t performing you can’t get rid of him/her as they just come back on the list and, as you say, they really have no accountability.

        • Positan

          Also – why does a country our size need 122 MPs? Under FPP we had 64.

          • biscuit barrel

            No we didnt . There was 99 Mps in last FPP parliament

  • Not Clinically Insane

    I found this more than interesting…. And not reported by Commie Dann because it clearly didnt suit his narrative. Clearly James Shaw wasnt aware of it when he gave his comments

  • JeffDaRef

    Look at the slightly longer game…

    National plus Winston = comfortable margin (like you say) and finally an ability to really get some policy stuff done rather than rely on old possum-head. National would need to compromise on a few things but most the big policies would be unchanged, maybe just a more nationalistic slant to some things.

    David Seymour is one of the more intelligent and effective MPs we have – if he was able to make a bit of noise, unencumbered by a coalition agreement, by next election they could be up somewhere around 4-6% – then a National-Act coalition becomes a reality and NZ could finally break the socialist stranglehold the country has been under since Muldoon.

    • biscuit barrel

      Not going to happen. ACt just doesnt have the views of the voters ( 95% under your scenario) that doesnt get to change much.

    • MaryLou

      I wish that too. But the reality is, even now they still aren’t even competing with the Conservatives, and given the year THEY’VE had – is quite something. I wish for a strong ACT party, but they’re just too quiet to get anywhere.

  • Isherman

    It’s all looking pretty grim for Andy…no money, no movement in the Preferred PM rate, very sub standard party polling, no clear way to form a government…geez, the brains trust of Andy and McCarten might have to think about going and having a chat with Hone and KDC soon, besides the big fella’s probably feeling a bit left out of this political cycle.

    • OneTrack

      But on the good side, he does now have Metiria to tell him what to do.

  • Boondecker

    Those poll results for the Watermelons, even with the within margin of error gains, is a sign the left are not increasing their appeal to the voting public. Barring something completely drastic that affects the economy, jobs and people’s current quality of life will surely mean no change next election.

    If the Nats do at that time choose Winston First as their kingmaker, they also had better be well prepared to handle Winnie’s inevitable subsequent departure and succession. i can’t the see the Winston First party maintaining beyond one or two points once he goes.

  • Toby

    It baffles me that the Maori party is not more popular.
    Why do Maori voters continue to vote for Labour who really do have very little regard for Maori issues.
    If people on the Maori role voted for the Maori party, National and the Maori party could govern alone and not only would Maori be much better of but Winston would be removed from his position as king maker.

    • Boondecker

      I think that question is driven by the fact Maori, politically speaking, are still driven by an attitude of grievance and fundamentalist activism. The Maori Party gave them a real platform within government and thus it instantly became an anathema, a paradigm shift, that is still far too great for many to cope with, and they returned to their traditional voting block with the left and Labour. That and the retirement of the key founding members, leaves the Maori Party with an ever-shrinking role and vote. Having a direct say within government to some seemingly watered down the opportunity to protest and express disdain at the political will and direction of the nation.

    • BG

      Simple MMP politics. The minor partys always suffer when supporting the govt of the day. Remember what happened to NZ 1st when Labour got ousted,they were obliterated.

  • cows4me

    Poor old Commie Dann didn’t have much of a smile on his face when reporting the latest odds last night. Must be hard been a lefty sycophant these days, oh dear.

  • Wayne Peter McIndoe

    It is simple – National are going to have to get enough of the popular vote to govern alone, but I cannot see that happening not after 3 terms so it is looking likely for National and New Zealand First

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