Latest poll shows a NZ First/National government could govern easily

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The latest One News/Colmar Brunton Poll is out and the status quo remains.

There are some small margin of error movements but essentially National is still riding high after 8 and a half years in government.

  • National 48% (down from 50)
  • Labour 29% (up from 28)
  • Greens 12% (up from 10)
  • NZ First 9%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Conservative Party 1%

That Conservative party number will collapse to nothing in coming months when the truth start coming out about Colin Craig.  

Labour remains mired under 30% and their leader is still on 7%. There is no way voters will accept a cobbled together coalition lead by a man on 7% and his party struggling to convince just a bit of a quarter of voters that they are credible. Winston Peters moves up to 12% into second place well ahead of Andrew Little’s meagre 7%. Winston Peters is clearly the real leader of the opposition.

TVNZ claims these margin of error movements are a poll boost for Labour and the Greens, which shows their inherent dishonesty. The poll was taken between the 28th of May and 2nd of June meaning it captured both the Budget and the new Memorandum of Understanding announced between Labour and the Greens last week.

So you can’t take anything from this poll…either negative or positive. It really is margin of error stuff, but it does show that voters didn’t really believe in the game changer title of the MOU. Game changers show massive movements, like Don Brash’s Orewa speech, which has been the only real game changer in recent history.

Their analysis of seats is ridiculous.

National would have 58 seats but in a Parliament of 122 would fall just short of being able to form a government, even with the support of its existing support partners ACT, United Future and the Maori Party, who all only get one seat.

It would on these numbers most likely need to rely on New Zealand First, which has 11 seats.

Labour meanwhile would have 35 and with the Greens 15 would muster 50.

But even with New Zealand First on board they would be one short of the 62 seats needed to form a government, creating the possibility of a
hung Parliament.

Obviously their reporters can’t count. National plus NZ First easily has enough to govern and two parties in government is better than, falling short with three. Game over. Winston wins, and so does National. 58 +11 = 69 seats, more than enough to govern.

It would be better for the electorate too, because Peter Dunne becomes irrelevant, as does David Seymour and the Maori party can no longer brown-mail the government.

 

-TVNZ


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

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