Looking behind the numbers of Colmar Brunton

Colmar Brunton have helpfully provided a look behind the numbers, especially regarding the MOU announcement of the Greens and Labour.

This is not good reading so the one Green party member who reads this blog should look away now.

Following the announcement of the Labour and Green Party Memorandum of Understanding, support for the Labour Party increased significantly, from 26% to 31%, and support for New Zealand First decreased, from 11% to 7%. Support for the Conservative Party also increased, from 0.2% to 1.2%. No other changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Please note: We have displayed these results to 1 decimal place to aid significance testing.

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As you can see Colmar Brunton have separated out those polled before the announcement and those afterwards.

The Greens lost 3.5%, while Labour gained 5.2%. Now Labour might think that is a good result, but have a look at their numbers prior to the announcement…26.1%. That is truly appalling. It was only the MOU that gave them a lift and even then because they had such a low base they still didn’t make it past 30%.

The Greens lose out no matter which way you look at it.

Strangely NZ First also had a slump, that may well be Labour voters who were indicating a preference for NZ First returning now Labour wants to play with the Greens. I don’t think Winston Peters will be concerned about that, because he will gain again once it becomes apparent that the MOU isn’t working.

National will be pleased though.

The Conservative party got a blip…probably some of those NZ First supporters looking for somewhere else. Again Winston won’t care about that because in a few short months the Conservative party will cease to exist when their funder is writing cheques to bloggers instead of to the party.


-Colmar Brunton

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