As predicted the Red/Green MOU benefits the Greens not Labour


Martyn Bradbury will be having kittens, the latest Roy Morgan poll shows that Labour has slipped in the wake of the much vaunted MOU and the Greens have risen.

The Labour party is now well entrenched under 30% in the polls. Typically in elections the Labour also slips away by between 5 and 7 points, showing just how perilous their position is.

Further more the Green “surge” will just scare even more voters, as they are now getting more powerful in any coalition with Labour. Over a third of any ministers would have to come from the Greens.

During June support for National fell 2.5% to 43%, now just ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% would still be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party, up 1% to 2%, Act NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 28% (down 1.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 9% (down 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (up 0.5%).

This is hardly the free fall that Martyn Bradbury has been predicting and National has been lower before.

My predictions in INCITE: Politics still hold, the most likely government is a National/NZ First government.

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Roy Morgan is the dodgiest poll, with mood swings from one month to the next which just isn’t believable.

Bottom line though is Winston Peters will never let Andrew Little become Prime Minister with around 25% support or less plus needing the Greens to get over the line. He really is the king maker.


– Roy Morgan

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.