Traditional political models predict Trump will absolutely tank

As an analyst of US politics, Nate Silver has been uncannily accurate and able to embarrass the pros.

CC001820160630 CC001c20160630

CC002c20160630

CC001e20160630

CC001820160630

If there is one thing that Trump has managed so far, it is that he’s broken all traditional forecast models.  That said, he’s got a huge job ahead.

 

– 538 dot.com

 


THANK YOU for being a subscriber. Because of you Whaleoil is going from strength to strength. It is a little known fact that Whaleoil subscribers are better in bed, good looking and highly intelligent. Sometimes all at once! Please Click Here Now to subscribe to an ad-free Whaleoil.

  • cows4me

    I can’t understand how anyone gifted with the ability to breath could vote for that crooked corrupt old bat. She and her husband should be enjoying their retirement years in a maximum security penitentiary and Nate Silver gets his statistics from Colorado.

    • Shalice

      It’s not over yet

      • XCIA

        I wonder what fat lady will be given the opportunity to sing ;-)

        • NahYeah

          It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, or sits on you.

        • Shalice

          I hope it’s not Merkel

      • Fletch

        Not over until the crooked lady becomes POTUS.

    • biscuit barrel

      The other view is that none of that is true.
      We went through all of this ‘I cant believe it’ when Obama was re-elected and yet he won handily against a far stronger candidate Romney

      • CD

        Yes, there are those who will not see the truth. Difference with Obama is that while I cannot stand his politics and he is a useless, pointless, weak individual, he is not an actual crook nor has he particularly used his position for personal gain. Like Corbyn he is a fool but has only really tried to promote his clearly stated political goals. Both Clintons are in EVERYTHING for personal gain and power for its own sake.

  • sheppy

    Another leftest to continue Americas decline into insignificance – just what they need.

  • Ross15

    The real campaign hasn’t got into first gear yet has it?
    When is Assange going to dump his load of damming material Clinton ?

  • Second time around

    After 8 years of a Democrat in the White House and with Republican dominated houses of Congress, the election should there for the Republicans to win. Although Trump may be a good candidate, even a gifted candidate, he has yet to persuade his fellow Republicans that he is suitable for higher office. Once he passes that hurdle his approval ratings will soar, perhaps even to the level Barry Goldwater achieved against the corrupt Lyndon Johnston.

  • JEL51

    Luckily Trump never feels faint at a challenge. I wonder what will happen if/when money from the Republicans side starts to flow. So far that side has spent little compared the bought-off Dem.
    I also like looking at the physical challenge. Poor old Bill will be lucky if he survives to see the driver in his family back into the Big House while there are days when she looks about to have her 2nd (?) stroke. Where as Donald moves well for his age group, only the hair looks a little unruly.

  • Builder

    It will be interesting to see if Hillary picks Elizabeth Warren as her VP candidate. I really don’t think America will be that keen on two woman in the top job. Just saying.

  • Mikex

    Yeh, with all the expert analyses they’ve got it sussed again, like Britain will never vote to leave the EU..

  • Spiker

    The biggest threat to Trump are the establishment replublicans who wont back him because he’s not one of them preferring to let Hilary win instead.

  • Red_NZ

    didn’t traditional polls also suggest that Labour would win both ours and the UK elections and that Brexit wouldn’t happen…. I’m not sure traditional Polling is as trust worthy as it once may have been. You also have to consider the “Shy Tory Factor” that has since become the “Shy Brexit” voter. Now days people seem to be less likely to be honest as to who they actually plan to vote for, due to the stigma that that honesty may attract

  • kloyd0306

    When polling people poll 35% Democrats, 28% Republicans and the rest Independents, it is easy to see why Nate Silver is making this prediction.

    Silver also predicted that Trump wouldn’t run (fail) and also predicted that Trump wouldn’t win the nomination (another fail) – Silver doesn’t look so smart.

    Silver is also a Democrat – a third fail.

  • Tiger

    The MSM seem to have jumped on the Clinton / Anti Trump Bandwagon yet buried deep in the MSN’s stories is this one: http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/trump-narrows-gap-on-clinton-in-new-poll/ar-AAhLZWt?li=AA5249&ocid=spartanntp.
    Stories denigrating Trump are common (“I like waterboarding”- Trump) and yet not much surrounding Clinton’s email scandal, the MSM have clearly picked their side. But as will all things, change is in the air, the MSM no longer control the narrative and so should not write off Trump just yet.
    Last night on Fox (often accused of being right wing) Eric Trump was interviewed about fundraising. He dissed reporting of Trump vs Clinton’s warchest as being paltry and said they are receiving millions of small donations which add up. These go unreported apparently.

  • Alf Garnett

    Since Trump joined the race, Silver has made 7 completely wrong predictions about Trump’s fate.

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/06/29/there_s_a_high_probability_nate_silver_is_wrong_again_about_donald_trump

    • This election is harder to pick than a broken nose. Mainly because the rules, and therefore the prediction models are out the window.

      It is still hard for Trump to win though, very hard. Don’t make the mistake of wishing something is true and it being true…they are two different things.

  • Builder

    Nate Silver’s predictions aren’t fixed in stone, they are just a reflection of the current polling. As new polls come in, his predictions will be revised. I wouldn’t write Trump off just yet, he out performed all other republican candidates and almost all pundits. If he gets Newt Gingrich as.vp, that will add some balance and lots of political expertise to compliment his bombastic style.

    • biscuit barrel

      Trump is the Leicester City effect, an average team who only did well because all the top sides tanked.
      Popularity goes with raising money from the plebs.
      Hilary $260 mill
      Bernie $230 mill
      The Donald $75 mill
      You can count the popularity in the $, and yet Trump says hes the ‘winner’

  • waldopepper

    no doubt this is from the same left who dismissed trump as “lasting 5 mins” at the beginning. talking up the down fall of trump is just more wish full thinking on behalf of the left. he will win in a landslide. people are fed up with political lapdogs, he cant be bought or manipulated by the establishment, and trumps stance on immigration and political correctness appeals to the everyman voter. as predicted by waldo.

25%