Danyl on Roy Morgan, polls, polling and self delusion


Even the left have lost all faith in the Roy Morgan poll:


The easiest thing to say is that this is a rogue poll, and that quarter of a million people did not switch to National in the last month. But maybe the last poll was rogue, and National’s support really is that high? Who knows?

No doubt Labour will start leaking that their secret polls show them getting a major bump after their conference.

If you added all the bumps they’ve claimed from their private polls they’d be on about 500% by now.


Yep, the scales are falling from their eyes, the Emperor is now seen to be naked (and that is indeed little Andrew), and no matter how much they are being told everything is just fine, even the usually faithful are now unable to keep pretending.

Some of those faithful are taking Danyl to task:

UMR poll last week put Labour/Greens ahead of Nat’s by a few points.
I expect Curia have been spinning like crazy to get some polling going that shows higher support.

Their methodology has always been skewed, maybe Farrar has got some of his minions into other polling organisations now!

Comment by anarkaytie — July 22, 2016 @ 6:14 am

Yeah, Curia’s always been wrong, except on election night.  Fancy that.

UMR is a reputable polling company that’s conducted Labour’s polling for well over 20 years now. They performed very well in their immediate pre-Election polls 2008-2014 compared to the major Public Pollsters. At the very least holding their own, if not a little more accurate than the others.

Comment by swordfish — July 22, 2016 @ 6:46 am

Even Danyl can’t stomach that degree of spin:

UMR is very reputable, but Labour’s briefings and leaks about the contents of UMR polls seem comically disreputable.

Comment by danylmc — July 22, 2016 @ 7:12 am


Danyl, I see the UMR poll for one of my clients. It has nothing like the spikes the Roy Morgan does, and when it does it’ll be an occasional 2-3% shift, not a 5-10% (or in this case 16%) swing as the Roy Morgan has. What the UMR has shown since the election has been a pretty static political environment. The Roy Morgan suggests that from month hundreds of thousands of people are swinging wildly from Labour and the Greens to National and back again. It’s why no one in the business takes them seriously.

As for Labour staffers briefing internal polls, that’s not something I’m aware of, but I wouldn’t assume that’s why the UMR poll occasional finds its way into the public arena. Frequently it’s Hooton who claims to have had a leak of Labour’s secret internal polling, when actually he just gets the UMR Omni from one of his clients as I do. I can also confirm he often makes up the figures, because he is a shameless liar.

Comment by Pollster — July 22, 2016 @ 9:55 am

And yet Labour MPs have been lied to to keep morale up and revolt from developing to a critical point.  You only have to see the enthusiastic way the leftie blogs have been pushing these “poll results” and predicting near-certain doom and gloom for National.

As “pollster” says, the polls have been fairly static, with National 47-48 and Labour 27-29, which is why any claim of Labour polling “with a 3 in front of it” over the last year has all been an invention from the strategy team.

The “secret” UMR poll is, in fact, a poll that doesn’t exist.  So neither “pollster”, nor Hooton, nor anyone else can have seen it.  It is simply a device to keep the troops thinking there is still hope.


– DanylMc, DimPost

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