Can Trump win? Yes he can

Donald Trump now has a path to victory. Politico explains:

Just six weeks ago, Hillary Clinton’s advantage in the Electoral College looked insurmountable. Now, based on the latest round of public polls, it’s a different story.

If the election were held today, Donald Trump would apparently win roughly as many electoral votes as Hillary Clinton — who held a commanding lead in early August and seemed to be closing off all possible Trump routes to 270 electoral votes.

But state polling averages, which can be lagging indicators, are beginning to show Trump in the lead. According to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average, Trump is now ahead in Iowa and Ohio — and he’s tied with Clinton in vote-rich Florida.

A slightly more aggressive estimate could add Nevada, North Carolina and one electoral vote in Maine to Trump’s tally: The New York real-estate magnate is ahead in the most recent polls in Nevada and North Carolina, and in Maine’s Second Congressional District.

That, plus all the other states Mitt Romney won four years ago, would get Trump to 266 electoral votes — just four shy of the 270 needed to win. Clinton’s once-comfortable cushion has been deflated to such an extent that if Trump wins those states and the electoral vote in Maine, he only needs one more state to win — with Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia the most likely targets. And there’s recent polling evidence suggesting he is in striking distance in some of those states.

And Nate Silver suggests that if this continues for another week then Hillary is in trouble.

Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.

It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast.

That’s not to imply the events of the weekend were necessarily catastrophic for Clinton: In the grand scheme of things, they might not matter all that much (although polling from YouGov suggests that Clinton’s health is in fact a concern to voters). But when you’re only ahead by 3 or 4 points, and when some sequence of events causes you to lose another 1 or 2 points, the Electoral College probabilities can shift pretty rapidly. A lot of light blue states on our map have turned pink, meaning that Trump is now a narrow favorite there instead of Clinton:

nate-update-ss

Bring on the debates…they will be spectacular.

 

– Fivethirtyeight, Politico

 


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  • JEL51

    I have been watching the LA Time’s daily poll all the way through and it has generally reflected what was appearing in the ‘better’ media at the time. It is surprising how the other polls have moved despite the biased coverage. It seems the public are waking up over there. If only 32% trust the media that leaves a huge percentage with opened minds.
    Meanwhile……. Dallas Police is going to take BLM & Uncle George Soros to court, charging them with inciting riots and the death of those Policemen…Trump had a great week, hoping he will have another as it was so entertaining last week.

    • curry4me

      The smart thing for a Trump Whitehouse to do would be to classify BLM as either a hate group, or a terrorist group. The latter would put George Soros on the spot.

      • JEL51

        Agree.That Soros is one scary guy and it seems he has a successor to follow-on after he carks it.

        • curry4me

          Such a move would be a good way to draw his teeth.

          • JEL51

            He has the backing of some good people I think. I made a comment on Breitbart’s ‘Deplorable Opening’ page the other night saying we (down here) expected them to get him in with a landslide. My upvotes shot away :)

          • curry4me

            Yeah, I’d like for Trump to get a landslide like Ronald Reagan did in 1984. Just imagine the overdose of schadenfreude, and the exploding socialist heads.

  • Anthony

    pipe bomb in New Jersey, blast in New York = more votes for Trump

  • Metricman

    I am saying nothing,,,,,,,,,,,,much !

  • Wayne Peter McIndoe

    People are starting to wake up to Hilary and not before time

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