Danyl on Labour’s dodgy polling

Danyl McLauchlan is having a blinder. He has dropped the sarcasm and started blogging in a rather perspicacious manner.

His latest effort on the spin being pushed by Labour on the polling is interesting and answers a lot of questions about why it is that Labour can’t make any dents in National’s numbers.

My current theory of New Zealand politics is that the party voter bases look roughly like this:


People are often surprised when there’s lots of political activity, and then a poll comes out and National haven’t shifted. I reckon this is because no one but Winston Peters is contesting their voters. Probably there was some movement during that period: people churning between the Greens and Labour and Labour and New Zealand First as the opposition parties all try and peel off their ‘next available voters’ from one another. We wouldn’t expect any of that to move current National voters – and it doesn’t.

Whilst I disagree on some of the overlaps I generally agree with his placement on the political spectrum.

Labour simply isn’t competing with National at all. They are trying to outbid the Greens on the left. I think Winston’s overlap with Labour is too much, but the reality is that Labour voters who could never bring themselves to vote Tory will look for a centrist party that is somewhat protectionist in outlook. That is NZ First. If this continues then you are going to see Labour squeezed by both the Greens and NZ First. Eventually, they will burst like a ripe boil and disappear.

National will be unharmed as long as the economy keeps growing and Labour remains irrelevant. Right now Labour looks precisely like the 100 years old they are…but they’ve lost their false teeth, and the incontinence pads are leaking and they’ve had way too much sherry.


– Dimpost

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