The NZ Clickbait is calling the election for Key

The Clark and Key governments have been remarkably stable, especially considering they have had to operate in a multi-party system.

Undoubtedly, the stability of the reformed economy has underpinned their governments’ longevity. That will be why the same stability can be seen in the Labour Party despite another bad poll. Down three points in Colmar Brunton’s latest sample, Labour is barely above the 25 per cent it received at the last election.

Ordinarily, this would spell trouble for its leader but Andrew Little seems not about to be toppled. Labour MPs probably sense that as long as the economy remains strong, no new leader could make much headway. Undoubtedly, Labour’s next leader is already in its caucus, keeping his or her head down because the time is not ripe.

The poll follows a cold winter of considerable angst about housing, homelessness and immigration, especially the last. The Government has not been at its best as it cast about for temporary accommodation for those sleeping rough or in cars but those problems do not have the electoral implications of high immigration.

The housing angst was initiated by the The NZ Clickbait and then Labour hopped on board.  No matter what they did, no matter what they said…. 

Third and fourth parties usually do better when the main opposition party does badly. The Greens are on 13 per cent and NZ First 11 per cent. Labour would need the support of both of them, and one or two more, to have a chance of governing if an election was held now.

But a coalition led by a party with as little as 26 per cent would not be an attractive prospect. It would have to be a full coalition, not just a confidence and supply agreement between a strong governing party and its partners. On these figures, the Greens and NZ First could claim nearly half the seats in Labour’s Cabinet.

No such coalition is in prospect, unless the economy delivers National a shattering blow within the next 12 months.

It’s all over, Rover.

Opposition parties can not win elections.  Incumbents lose them.  But against the backdrop of a Rock Star Economy, and the total void of charismatic, believable and inspiring leaders on the left, New Zealand is heading for an unprecedented 12 years of National leading the government.


– NZ Herald

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