The chart above was highlighted to me by a friend (who is brilliant at statistics) two days ahead of the election. She (and her husband) have been saying for months Donald Trump would win.
But, everyone (including me) ignored really big data, instead preferring to focus on single polls, and the data expertise of Nate Silver. My gut feel told me it was harder to pick than a broken nose, but these two were adamant, Trump was going to win. BTW they are the same two who in 2014 on election night called the election 3 hours before media did…no one will know that except the WO team, but they did.
Now, Nate Silver does use big data, but his data is just the polls all across the country, plus some demographic information and his proprietary algorithms and assumptions. It is all well and good, but when it fails people start questioning polls, so-called big data and ignoring data sets that are right in front of you. Instead of the wisdom of thousands of polls and dozens of pollsters, you are using the wisdom of search engines and millions upon millions of searches.
The evidence is clear from that search data that Donald Trump was going to win based on search requests from 2008 and 2012.
Then when you observe anecdotal evidence as well, like the numbers at rallies, and other public engagements you would get the picture that Trump was marching to victory.
It is little wonder then that there is genuine shock amongst the chattering classes that they got everything wrong. If only they’d been looking and researching in the right places instead of trying to be the news or trying to manipulate results.
On a final note I leave you this chart: