Mike Williams on the politician of the year

Mike ‘Fat Tony’ Williams writes about his politician of the year in the HB Today.

After reviewing the impact of Trump and Brexit he concludes:

When we ask if any of these trends and political movements have resonance in New Zealand, the answer is not too clear.

Certainly we used to have a large and reasonably well paid industrial working class which now seems a lot smaller than it used to be.

The jobs that sustained my father and our family simply no longer exist, but others have popped up and looking around our big cities, it’s impossible to spot the kinds of “rust belts” of abandoned factories that blight once industrial power houses like Detroit and many towns in the North of England.

With the TPPA off the table courtesy of Mr Trump, free trade is unlikely to become an issue but immigration might.

The flow of immigrants reached an all-time high of more than seventy thousand in the year to November 2016. ?

Forty-one thousand of these arrivals were on work visas and twenty four thousand arrived with student visa, many of which will allow the holder to take a job while studying.

Overall, New Zealand’s unemployment rate is low, but there are pockets of serious distress like young Maori and Pacifica and locations like Northland.

The only player on our political stage positioned to follow the Trump-Brexit path to success, is my politician of the year, The Right Honourable Winston Peters MP.

Now John Key has gone, Peters has the best political nose in the business and he’s owned issues like immigration for years.

He’s already benefitting from his reading of the political landscape with support for his New Zealand First Party averaging ten per cent, more than double where it stood at the same time in the last electoral cycle.

With a quarter of enrolled voters not bothering to cast a ballot last time, Trump and Brexit suggest that these people may be Winston’s happy hunting ground next year.

Even if a fragment of this nearly three quarters of a million potential voters were aroused by the Trump/Brexit issues, Bill English is in serious trouble!

Bill English may not be in serious trouble, but he will be if he ignores Winston Peters.

I predict that Winston Peters is going to get between 15-20% of the vote in the next election. I know in most polls (including internal polls) that he is sitting around 12% at the moment. Traditionally NZ First’s support rises in the last few weeks of the election campaign so 15% is easily obtainable.

With Labour?sitting and mired below 30% there is no way Andrew Little could ignore a surging Winston Peters, and the Greens are like to slump to 4th place behind Winston. National is going to drop support, it is just a question of how much.

Mike Williams is right, Winston Peters sits in the?box seat right now.

 

– HB Today

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