Roy Morgan continues to go up and down like a whore’s drawers

Roy Morgan polls aren’t really believable. They go up and down like a whore’s drawers. No reputable polling company shows swings like they do.

So why am I covering it?

Because Labour swears by Roy Morgan, last month the idiots at The Standard were salivating over the Roy Morgan. They will probably ignore this one.

During February support for National rose by 2% to 48% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 39% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would retain Government with the support of minor party allies.  

Support for the National partners was virtually unchanged with the Maori Party unchanged at 2%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (down 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support was at 26% (down 1%), Greens 13% (up 0.5%) and New Zealand First 8% (down 1%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ was 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others was 2% (unchanged).

In addition the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 140pts in February with 63.5% (up 0.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Labour will struggle to win an election when the majority of those polled think New Zealand is heading in the right direction.

I think this poll is wonky. National is too high, Labour is about right, and NZ First is way too low. In fact, I’d reverse the Green and NZ First numbers.

Based on this poll a National/NZ First government would govern easily and have breathing room even if some dopey MP disgraced themselves. It is certainly a better option than the ragtag collection of also ran and cult parties.

 

– Roy Morgan

 


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