The state of the electoral nation, according to ACT

From ACT’s Free Press

Elsewhere Up and Down the Country
We have said that this year’s election will be the most strategic ever, and ACT’s strategic importance keeps increasing. No party can govern alone and it is impossible to avoid a left wing, regressive government without ACT. This week Free Press tours the machinations up and down the country.

Ohariu
Peter Dunne’s position in has been made challenging by the entry of Greg O’Connor to the race and the withdrawal of the Greens’ candidate. Dunne’s majority is 710, and there are 2700 Green votes up for grabs. At first blush Dunne is 2000 votes under water. We wouldn’t write Dunne off but it’s a big hill to climb.

It’s not what you can see that’s going to be the problem.  It will be the things that become apparent along the way.  As I like to say:  it’s never the original sin that gets you, it’s the covering up.

The Mana-Maori Deal
[Yesterday] the Mana and Maori Parties announced that Mana will not stand in the six Maori electorates other than Te Tai Tokerau, where the Maori party will give Hone Harawira a clear run in return. It looks likely that Harawira will win Te Tai Tokerau back off Labour, and the Maori Party will win Tamaki Makaurau and Ikaroa-Rawhiti off Labour in addition to Wairiki, which they already hold.  

Who Needs Who the Most?
We have watched Mana’s Hone Harawira and Labour’s Kelvin Davis speak in the north, and now we understand how Davis lost to Harawira four times. Harawira probably didn’t need the Maori Party to pull its Te Tai Tokerau Candidate, but two further seats for the Maori Party just got immeasurably easier. The Maori Party seem to be the winner.

The only reason Kelvin Davis won is because Hone had to lose.  There was no way that the Internet/Mana monster could be permitted to enter politics.  As a result, through some subterfuge and deniability, the right started pouring money and resources into Davis’ campaign.  People came up from Auckland to put signs up pretending to be Labour people… who weren’t.  Leaflets were printed, paid for and delivered by … “Labour” people.

None of that will happen this time around.  Unless Kelvin can get a good list possie, he’s toast.  And to be honest, after all the crim hugging and running to Australia to campaign for Kiwis overseas, he really hasn’t earned his way into the electorate.  He had three years to make it his own, and he completely failed to make any headway.

Disaster for the Right
The deal only makes sense for Harawira if he thinks he can bring in another MP on the list, as he would have had he won TTT last time. Harawira will never work with the right so it is a gain for the left (any Maori seats Labour lose will be made up by list seats). Including Ohariu, the right have probably lost a net two seats in the past week.

Hone just wants his job back.  And instead of selling his soul to Kim Dotcom, he’s happy to sell it to the Maori Party.  The deal absolutely makes sense when you realise how desperate he is to get back onto the gravy train.

New Zealand First
New Zealand First should benefit from the level of migration, and the worldwide tide against globalization. The only problem is that even their supporters don’t want them in government, where their track record is hopeless. Winston Peters has been sacked from cabinet by three different Prime Ministers and voted out of two electorates. Both times NZ First has held the balance of power the Government has gone on a spending spree and mortgage rates have hit 11 per cent.

 

As for Winston, ACT are quite acerbic about Winston, but they better get used to the idea that they won’t be National’s BFF after the next election, no matter how many MPs David brings with him.  Like it or not, the old Tusker is going to go out on a high.

And before you get frustrated about that, remember who to thank:  John Key.

 


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