Why National are in trouble

Guest post

Several commentators and other bloggers are saying the latest Colmar Brunton poll is great for National and the Key/English/McCully effect has made no difference. History tells us otherwise, they are in trouble.

Back in February 2008, National was polling at 54%, in the election they won with 45% of the vote.

In February 2011 and February 2014, National was polling at 51%, in the election they won 47% of the vote.

Every time National has polled high in February but dropped 4% or more each time in the elections.

So at 46% February 2017 history is showing National heading towards 40% to 42% or less in September. If this happens they will need more than Act, United Future or Maori Party to prop them up.

Now let us look at NZ First

In February 2008 they were polling at 2%, in the election they won 4% of the vote.

In February 2011 they were polling at 4%, in the election they won 7% of the vote.

In February 2014 they were polling at 3%, in the election they won 9% of the vote.

Every time NZ First have increased their vote and last time by 6%.

So at 11% February 2017 are NZ First heading towards 15% or more of the vote in September?

With those figures, history is showing National will need NZ First to govern.

 


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