More bad news… for Labour

Guest post

Last week we showed how National were in trouble [link to www.whaleoil.co.nz/2017/02/why-national-are-in-trouble/] comparing the poll history of the Colmar Brunton poll take in February of an election year.

Conclusion: Colmar Brunton Poll gives National false hope.

Now let’s see what history tells us about the latest Roy Morgan Poll and the Labour Party.
Back in 2008 while Labour was in Government they polled 36.5% in the February Roy Morgan poll, later that year lost the general election with 34% of the vote.

In February 2011, Roy Morgan had them at 35%, but they only received 27.5% of the vote in the general election.

In February 2014, they were at 33% but only received 25% of the vote in the general election.
Every time they have polled higher in February than the general election, with a drop off of up to 8%.

So with the latest poll showing Labour at 26%, history is showing Labour heading towards the worse election defeat ever, possibly down to 22% or lower. At 22%, Little will be scrapping to get in just like the last elections. Labour electoral candidates will control Little’s destiny. He would be be a dead duck anyway, someone has to take the blame.

How is their support party the Greens doing?

Back in 2008, they polled 9% in the February Roy Morgan poll, in the general election gained only 7% of the vote.

In February 2011, they were at 8% but increased to 11% in the general election.

In 2014, they were steady at 11% in February and the election.

History is showing that the Greens fluctuate in comparing the Roy Morgan poll and the general election so wouldn’t read too much in their current polling of 13%.

The combined Labour/Green vote is not going to be a winning strategy.

So despite the Labour Party thinking the Roy Morgan is their friend, all it is doing is giving them false hope.

 


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