Labour’s Little problem

The latest Newshub poll has some rather bad news for Andrew Little.

He came fourth behind Bill English, Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

This was always predictable and Labour walked themselves into the trap when they faked out Annette King into retirement.  

Labour’s caucus is as divided as ever and despite the bullish attitude of Andrew Little, most caucus members know they need a high 30s score to have any chance of forming a government.

Labour, along with National, traditionally slip in the polls ahead of election day and the final result usually shows they lose around 4-5% of support.

It is almost unheard of for the two major parties to grow their vote in the final weeks.

So, with Labour at or below 30% in any credible poll that presents a problem, especially when the caucus and the general population know that Andrew Little is unlikeable, silly looking and ineffective.

Labour’s vote hasn’t grown under his leadership despite the claims of unity. They look no more ready for government than the day he took over.

That is until Jacindarella came along. And the glass slipper of deputy fitted.

I’ve canvassed a few pollsters and pundits and they reckon that replacing Andrew Little with Jacindarella now would give them a much needed 5% boost in the polls and the slim chance that they might be in a position to form a  government on September 23.

With Andrew Little there is no chance.

So, Labour’s caucus faces a dilemma. Do they stick with Andrew Little, languishing behind Winston and Jacindarella in the preferred Prime Minister stakes and face a certain loss at the polls. Or, do they grasp the nettle and axe Little and place Jacinda Ardern at the helm of the 100 year old party?

My pick is that they lack the stones and will let Little ride Labour into the ground and from the ashes of defeat they can try and rebuild the party.

Either way, I’m happy.

 


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