Labour’s polling dilemmas just got worse

The serious politician?

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour mired in the mid-20s. At 26 percent Labour is a full 10 points off where they were when David Shearer led the party.

Labour MPs are quietly concerned about where they are at 6 months out from the general election.

Worse, their internal polling says that with Jacinda Ardern as leader they’d score 5% higher than Andrew Little is now. But those numbers are being fudged to save Little, caucus gets given the doctored figures. Fortunately, for me, Labour is leaking like a sieve and the leaks get worse the lower Little’s numbers get.  

Which leads to a polling dilemma.

Labour have knifed Annette King and replaced her with Jacinda as a halfway measure. As I previously said if all the reasons for having Jacinda as deputy are valid they are more so having her as leader. Add in their internal polling results that say Labour would be better off with her as leader and you start to see the dilemma.

That dilemma is going to grow with the next public polls that show Jacinda with a higher rating than Andrew Little in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. If Labour’s  numbers haven’t improved by much and Little comes second to Jacinda in the PPM stakes then it is all on for Labour’s special rule to axe the leader and replace them with a choice of caucus three months out from an election will come into play.

Right now the change in deputy looks like a hail Mary pass by caucus to staunch their bleeding.

 


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