Will National have new List MPs after the election?

It is a good question: Will National have new List MPs after the election?

Probably not.

Unless non-caucus members are ranked ahead of caucus members.

National’s current caucus has 19 List MPs. Three of these are leaving. Parata, Naylor & Foster-Bell. That leaves 16 List MPs.  

At current polling, National will get less than the 47% it received in 2014. The 2014 election was something of an anomaly as the Conservative Party received 3.97%, which was redistributed to successful parties – so National got a bonus 47% of 3.97% of the vote. They also got a bonus of 47% of the 1.42% internet mana received.

In 2017 it is unlikely that there will be such a large level of votes for any party that does not make it into parliament. There is no equivalent of the Conservatives. Internet Mana is no longer in existence.

So National’s actual result on the night is far more likely to closely reflect the votes that National actually receives, rather than receiving a bonus of close to 3% from the redistribution of Conservative and Internet Mana votes.

This means that there are highly likely to be fewer National List MPs even without National falling in the polls. If National falls in the polls the number could be reduced further. It could be reduced further still if Chris Bishop wins Hutt South as he is widely expected to do.

If National falls in the polls the number could be reduced further. It could be reduced further still if Chris Bishop wins Hutt South as he is widely expected to do.

So any promises to prospective candidates that they will receive a high list ranking should be met with a request to be ranked higher than current List MPs otherwise they are rather hollow promises.

 


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