We’ve run two previous polls, roughly one a month since February. This was the result two days ago.
The result between February and March were fairly static, but this poll has seen a big move to people who have gone from “Will place” to “Won’t place”.
Here is the progression of results
|WILL vote National again||53||55||48|
|MIGHT vote National again||23||21||20|
|WON’T vote National again||19||19||28|
This was from a 1900+ voter sample*. The voters are Whaleoil readers. There was a reasonable disquiet about National following UNSC resolution 2334 over Christmas, but that remained static until recently when National lost more support over making a deal with the Maori party over the RMA reforms.
Based on this non-scientific but strongly indicative Whaleoil poll, National will get 39-42% of the party vote in September, depending on the proportion of wasted votes being distributed from parties such as TOP and the Conservatives which will not make it to parliament.
The next three months will be where Bill English will win or lose the election. If his government keeps eroding what loyal supporters see as non-negotiable base values of the National party, a party vote starting with a 4 would be considered a good result.
* sample sizes: Feb 1900+, Mar 1800+, Apr 1900+
Since you’re here … we’ve got a favour to ask. Advertising revenues across media are falling fast. And unlike other news organisations, we haven’t put up a paywall – we want to keep our work available to everyone. Please Click Here Now to subscribe to an ad-free Whaleoil. Your contribution helps us survive in a hostile market.