National flat-lined in latest Roy Morgan poll

  • The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down slightly to 45% with National support unchanged at 43%, support for the Maori Party increasing 0.5% to 1.5% while Act NZ was down 1% to 0.5% and support for United Future was unchanged at 0%.
  • Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was unchanged at 42.5% with support for Labour down 1% to 28.5%, while support for the Greens rose 1% to 14%. Support for New Zealand First was down 0.5% to 10%.

Keep in mind that National generally loses 4-5% of the poll numbers on election day, and a result that starts with a 3 is on the cards.   This has been what our own internal “poll” (deliberately between quotes) has been indicating as well.

At this stage, any result for National on September 23 that starts with a 4 is to be considered a good result.

This poll was taken before the budget announcement however.  A good “before” picture if you like.  It will be interesting to see if any of the afterglow still exists when the next Roy Morgan is run.

National won’t get there with its current coalition partners.  Winston must be part of the next government if National want to remain in charge.

 

 


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