A useful chart at NBR on Labour’s List MP chances

Rob Hosking at NBR writes:

Mr Jackson tried to get the party hierarchy – and especially his leader, Andrew Little – to perform in the time-honoured fashion but instead he found himself in the politically equivalent situation of being somewhat addled and exposed in a public place.

He has been given the equivalent of a bit of cardboard from a six pack with which to cover his delicate bits: Mr Jackson is now officially campaign director for the Maori electorates.

If the Labour Party gets roughly 30% of the party vote on September 23, Mr Jackson will be back in Parliament. Less and he will be back doing talkback somewhere.  

Willie Jackson needs Labour to get 29%. Trevor Mallard’s goose is cooked, he needs Labour to get 32.5% and it looks like Tamati Coffey has ignored the Maori caucus decision to not go on the list. But he is equally doomed and has an un-winnable seat to campaign in.

Farrar produced the chart and adds these comments:

If you assume they retain their current 27 seats, then they get their first List MP (Little) at 23%.

Willie Jackson will become an MP if they get 29%, around their current level of polling. Of course in the last three elections they have done worse at the election than their polling six months out.

Mallard only gets back in if they get over 32%.

So assuming they get 29%, who will be their new MPs:

  • Ginny Andersen
  • Deborah Russell
  • Paul Eagle
  • Priyanca Radhakrishnan
  • Jan Tinetti
  • Willow-Jean Prime
  • Kiri Allan
  • Willie Jackson

The problem for several of those is that Labour traditionally drops between 4-6% in the final weeks of the election campaign. It is possible the decapitation strategy may come into play and Little will end up stranded on the wrong side of 23%.

 

-NBR, Kiwiblog


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

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