A useful chart at NBR on Labour’s List MP chances

Rob Hosking at NBR writes:

Mr Jackson tried to get the party hierarchy – and especially his leader, Andrew Little – to perform in the time-honoured fashion but instead he found himself in the politically equivalent situation of being somewhat addled and exposed in a public place.

He has been given the equivalent of a bit of cardboard from a six pack with which to cover his delicate bits: Mr Jackson is now officially campaign director for the Maori electorates.

If the Labour Party gets roughly 30% of the party vote on September 23, Mr Jackson will be back in Parliament. Less and he will be back doing talkback somewhere.  

Willie Jackson needs Labour to get 29%. Trevor Mallard’s goose is cooked, he needs Labour to get 32.5% and it looks like Tamati Coffey has ignored the Maori caucus decision to not go on the list. But he is equally doomed and has an un-winnable seat to campaign in.

Farrar produced the chart and adds these comments:

If you assume they retain their current 27 seats, then they get their first List MP (Little) at 23%.

Willie Jackson will become an MP if they get 29%, around their current level of polling. Of course in the last three elections they have done worse at the election than their polling six months out.

Mallard only gets back in if they get over 32%.

So assuming they get 29%, who will be their new MPs:

  • Ginny Andersen
  • Deborah Russell
  • Paul Eagle
  • Priyanca Radhakrishnan
  • Jan Tinetti
  • Willow-Jean Prime
  • Kiri Allan
  • Willie Jackson

The problem for several of those is that Labour traditionally drops between 4-6% in the final weeks of the election campaign. It is possible the decapitation strategy may come into play and Little will end up stranded on the wrong side of 23%.


-NBR, Kiwiblog

Do you want:

  • Ad-free access?
  • Access to our very popular daily crossword?
  • Access to daily sudoku?
  • Access to Incite Politics magazine articles?
  • Access to podcasts?
  • Access to political polls?

Our subscribers’ financial support is the reason why we have been able to offer our latest service; Audio blogs. 

Click Here  to support us and watch the number of services grow.