100 days until the election and Labour’s vote collapses

Labour is in awful trouble. They are 100 days out from an election and traditionally their vote slides about 5%.

The latest Newshub poll has them in a dreadful position.

Labour’s falling even further behind, according to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.

With 100 days to go until the election, National is holding strong and steady on 47.4 percent.

But Labour is falling way back on 26.4 percent – a big and painful drop of 4.4 percent, the lowest on this poll since the last election.

The Greens pick some of that up, going up 1.3 percent to 12.5 percent, but the Labour/Green alliance drops 3.1 percent, down to 38.9 percent.

The potential kingmaker, New Zealand First is up to 9.4 percent – a record high on this poll.

When it comes to seats in the House, National is set to get 58. With its three support partners, it reaches the required 61 to govern.

For the Labour/Green alliance, even after combined, it’s only set to get 48 seats total.

Even if it got New Zealand First’s 12 seats, the Left would only get to 60 – not enough.

As Preferred Prime Minister, Bill English is up to 26.2 percent with Winston Peters in second place on 9.7 percent.

The numbers show National only has just enough to govern, without any upsets from current support partners.

It isn’t a safe number to govern with and will still allow David Seymour and Peter Dunne to continue on their grandstanding ways.

A National-NZ First government would give them plenty of margin to govern strongly for the betterment of the nation.

Labour though is in a dreadful state. People don’t back losers and right now they look like real bad losers. Expect their vote to slump further.

It is even worse when your putative leader is just third in Preferred PM stakes:

Voters also don’t like one party having too much power, so expect to see National’s vote slip too.

100 days out from an election, this is not a good spot for Labour to be in.

In just a week Labour’s caucus may be able to take drastic action and get rid of Little without going back to the party.

Do they have the guts to do that? Probably not.



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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.