RadioNZ poll of polls says Winston holds the balance of power

Radio NZ has their Poll of Polls analysis:

Nationals ratings have trended down in the first five months of this year and Winston Peters holds the balance of power.

National was averaging 48.0 percent at the beginning of the year. The May average was 45.3 percent. That is not enough to form a government with its three current mini-partners, the Māori party, ACT and United Future. It was 3 percentage below its 48.2 percent average in May 2014.

I’ve been saying this for a long time. The current support partners will not get National over the line.

From its May 2014 standing, National climbed to a peak of 52.5 percent in mid-July, from which it dropped to 47 percent in the election in September.

That pattern is likely to occur again. A slide of 4-5% is traditional for Labour and for National.

Also in May 2014, National’s lead over the Labour and Green parties combined was 6.0 percent, climbing to 14.7 percent in mid-July. The lead this May was 4.1 percent and the trend has been fairly steadily down through the year.

Labour’s May average was a still torpid 29.4 percent – the bounce after electing Jacinda Ardern as deputy leader did not push it higher.

The Greens were at 11.9 per cent. These figures are both within a whisker of where they were in May 2014.

New Zealand First was 9.4 percent, well above its 5.1 percent in May 2014. The smaller parties were all around or below 1 percent. The Māori party was 1.6 percent (2.1 percent if Mana’s support is added in), ACT 0.9 percent, the Conservatives and Opportunity party at 0.7 percent and United Future at 0.1 percent.

There is no “Jacinda Effect”.

Assuming the Māori party, ACT and United Future win electorate seats, the makeup of Parliament on the May ratings would be 55 National plus two Māori party and one each for ACT and United Future – a total of 59 seats, just short of a majority.

Labour would get 36 seats and the Greens 15.

In this scenario New Zealand First, with 11 seats, would hold the balance of power.

Like it or not Bill English is going to have to contemplate negotiating with Winston. That may be problematic if Winston remembers that it was Bill English who moved the caucus motion to toss Winston out of caucus and Nick Smith seconded it.


-Radio NZ

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