Whaleoil Poll Result: 2017 National Party voting intention (June)

We’ve run four previous polls, roughly one a month since February.   This was the result two days ago.

The result between February and March were fairly static, but this poll has seen a big move to people who have gone from “Will place” to “Won’t place”.

Here is the progression of results  

Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Other 5 5 4 5 5
WILL vote National again 53 55 48 52 57
MIGHT vote National again 23 21 20 17 15
WON’T vote National again 19 19 28 26 23

 

This was from a 1600+ voter sample*.  The voters are Whaleoil readers.  The poll followed the debacle with Todd Barclay’s and Bill English’s media coverage about alleged tape recordings of office staff, National’s apology to and its resumption of diplomatic relations with Israel, the Labour party “slave labour” intern scandal and Winston Peters’ promise to forgive all student loans.

Based on this non-scientific but strongly indicative Whaleoil poll, National will get 40-43% of the party vote in September, depending on the proportion of wasted votes being distributed from parties such as TOP and the Conservatives which will not make it to parliament.

As things are getting closer to the election, fewer people are unsure.  The “Won’t vote National” again has steadily reduced since Murray McCully’s personal vendetta against Israel was backed by Bill English and National has started repairs on that relationship, even though Bill English is known to be against that.

Although the “won’t” camp are fairly determined, those not sure are balancing the need for certainty of outcome rather than letting Winston Peters decide.

* sample sizes:  Feb 1900+, Mar 1800+, Apr 1900+, May 1900+, Jun 1600+


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

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