Whaleoil Poll Result: National Party voting intention

We’ve run three previous polls, roughly one a month since February.   This was the result last week before the budget.


The result between February and March were fairly static, and the April poll saw a big move to people who have gone from “Will place” to “Won’t place”.

May’s poll is showing that there are more people that are making up their minds, with fewer in the MIGHT column.

Here is the progression of results  

Feb Mar Apr May
Other 5 5 4 5
WILL vote National again 53 55 48 52
MIGHT vote National again 23 21 20 17
WON’T vote National again 19 19 28 26

Right now, this Whaleoil poll shows that between a fifth and a quarter of people that voted National in 2014 are fairly sure they won’t vote for National in 2017.

This was from a 1900+ voter sample*.  The voters are Whaleoil readers.  There was a reasonable disquiet about National following UNSC resolution 2334 over Christmas, but that remained static until National lost more support over making a deal with the Maori party over the RMA reforms.  Since then National has not supported firearms owners and put Gerry Brownlee back on the leash when he tried to repair relations with Israel.

Based on this non-scientific but indicative Whaleoil poll, National will get 39-43% of the party vote in September, depending on the proportion of wasted votes being distributed from parties such as TOP and the Conservatives which will not make it to parliament.


* sample sizes:  Feb 1900+, Mar 1800+, Apr 1900+, May 1900+

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

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