80 days out from the election and Labour slips again…so do Nats

One News has their latest Colmar Brunton poll and there is no good news for the left-wing and plenty of good news for Winston Peters.

After a month of scandals – National’s Todd Barclay resigned and Labour’s intern scandal – both of the major political parties have taken a hit, according to the poll.

National dropped two points to 47 per cent, while Labour dropped three points to 27 per cent.

The Green Party and New Zealand First are both up two points to 11 per cent.

The Maori Party is up one point to 2 per cent and The Opportunities Party is steady on 1 per cent.

When it comes to seats in what would be a Parliament of 122 MPs, National would have 57 seats.

With its current support parties of ACT, United Future and the Maori Party, it could muster a further four seats, bringing its total to 61, not quite a majority.

Under this scenario, National would need the support of New Zealand First and its 14 MPs to form a government.

Labour, meanwhile, with 33 and the Greens’ 14 could muster 47 seats.

Throw in New Zealand First’s 14 and the centre left block would also reach 61 seats – not enough for a majority, although it could technically force a hung Parliament.

The poll was conducted between July 1 and July 5 and has a sample size of 1007 eligible voters.

The margin of error is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

80 days out from an election and Labour and National are slumping, as predicted. It always happens. National will not be able to govern with existing partners and Labour can’t get there without Winston Peters AND the Greens.

I know where I am putting my money.



Do you want:

  • Ad-free access?
  • Access to our very popular daily crossword?
  • Access to daily sudoku?
  • Access to Incite Politics magazine articles?
  • Access to podcasts?
  • Access to political polls?

Our subscribers’ financial support is the reason why we have been able to offer our latest service; Audio blogs. 

Click Here  to support us and watch the number of services grow.