Shut the door and turn off the lights.   Andrew Little is a political dead man walking.

The cost of replacing the billboards might be the only thing saving Andrew Little now

Andrew Little’s extraordinary admission that he talked to his colleagues about falling on his sword sounds like the death rattle of a leader who knows that come election night he might be offering his resignation.

Labour MPs will be reeling from a disastrous One News-Colmar Brunton Poll which puts the party on track for its worst result yet.

Not unexpected.  But the problem is that they’ve been deluding themselves with internal polls that were consistently reporting 5-10% better results.   That too has ended.  Someone inside the Labour Hierarchy has decided to let the real numbers filter through, and the next leader of the Labour party has been gleefully leaking them to the media.  

A surge in support for the Greens on the back of co-leader Metiria Turei’s DPB fraud bomb keeps a centre left Government in play – but only if NZ First throws in its lot with them.

On the one hand it is frustrating as they will believe this is a signal that their voters approve of benefit fraud.  Our numbers show that by the time the voters get into the voting booth, the Greens will be very lucky to come out with a two digit result.   In the mean time, they will feel bolstered and think they are on the right track.   Excellent.

Political convention has it that dumping leaders just weeks out from an election doesn’t just look desperate, it looks ugly and ill disciplined.

But when you’re at rock bottom – and Labour will be praying and hoping that’s what this is – convention can fly out the window.

The party is looking at a rout and many of its MPs, Little included, are likely to lose their jobs.

I’ve been joking about it, but it looks like Bill English’s unenviable record is under serious threat.  Andrew Little will go into the history books as the man the unions installed against the wish of the electorate, against the wish of the party and against the wish of the caucus, who then delivered the worst result ever and lost his own job in the process.  They won’t even have to throw him out!  And there will be no disgruntled list MPs to placate as there won’t be any list MPs.

Little has a popular deputy, Jacinda Ardern – on some surveys, she is more popular than him.

But even if she wanted to challenge Little – and there are few signs that she does – Ardern’s mentors would probably counsel her to wait.

It goes to show how little respect Labour have for the average voter when they thought that getting Jacinda to tour around with Andrew would make a difference.

People do not pick a government based on how cool an MP is in the Women’s mags.   But I guess they were out of ideas.

With the TV debates to come, Little has a chance to pull a rabbit out of the hat.  But he’ll probably manage to make even Bill English look good.  Bill is across the numbers, and has the confidence that comes from experience.   Experience that Andrew does not posses.


– Tracy Watkin, Stuff

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.